# Why polls and markets got midterms right but margins wrong

> Polls and markets correctly predicted midterm winners but underestimated margins in close races.
- Title: Why polls and markets got midterms right but margins wrong
- Summary: Polls and markets correctly predicted midterm winners but underestimated margins in close races.
- Keywords: 2026 election, midterms, poll, election, texas governor, south carolina senate, kalshi, election results, Straight Arrow
- Source: Straight Arrow — https://san.com/cc/why-polls-and-markets-got-the-midterm-winners-right-but-the-margins-wrong
- Published: 2026-11-05T23:30:30+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: 2026 election, midterms, poll, election, texas governor, south carolina senate, kalshi, election results, news, politics, world
## Polls predicted Democratic House win
Polls before Tuesday’s midterms showed Democrats winning the national House vote by about 9 percentage points.
## Democrats won by 13 percentage points
As of Thursday afternoon, they’re on track to win by about 13.
## Texas and South Carolina races flipped
In Texas’ governor’s race and South Carolina’s Senate race, polling averages favored Republicans, and Democrats won both.
## Polling fixes created new problem
The fixes pollsters made after Trump-era misses may have created a new problem, and prediction markets largely followed the polls into it.
## Polling response rates dropped
In 1997, about 36% of people contacted for Pew Research Center phone surveys responded. Now, response rates are down to 1% or 2%.
## Polling bias toward Democrats
In 2020, Democrats were 3 percentage points more likely than Republicans to cooperate with pollsters.
## Polling weighting adjustments
Pollsters correct for that with weighting, counting some answers more heavily than others.
## 2024 polling changes
By 2024, many pollsters had also started asking respondents whom they voted for in the last presidential election, then adjusting their samples to match the actual results.
## Texas governor race outcome
Kalshi gave Republican Gov. Greg Abbott about a 60% chance of winning on Election Day. He lost to Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 7.1 percentage points.
## South Carolina Senate race outcome
In South Carolina, markets gave Republican Sen. Darlene Graham about a 70% chance of keeping her seat. The polling average had her up 2.6 percentage points. Democrat Annie Andrews won by 4.4.
## 2028 presidential race test
Pollsters face a bigger test in 2028. They’ll need to better model who will vote and how people recall their past votes.
## Key takeaway

Democrats won the House by 13 percentage points despite polls showing only 9, with Texas and South Carolina races flipping.