# Why Soto is the home run bet Tuesday

> Two shaky starters at Citi Field, one hitter with a history against the guy on the mound.
- Title: Why Soto is the home run bet Tuesday · New York Post
- Summary: Two shaky starters at Citi Field, one hitter with a history against the guy on the mound. Soto has homered off Shane Baz before, and Baz throws the exact…
- Keywords: mlb, betting, juan soto, mets, player props, news, entertainment, Soto, home, run, bet, Tuesday
- Source: New York Post — https://nypost.com/2026/09/15/betting/mets-vs-orioles-odds-prediction-best-home-run-prop-for-tuesdays-mlb-slate
- Published: 2026-09-15T19:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: mlb, betting, juan soto, mets, player props, news, entertainment
## Pete Alonso comes home
The Orioles visit Queens on Tuesday night with Alonso in their lineup, back at Citi Field as a visitor after leaving the Mets in free agency.
## Neither starter inspires
Shane Baz is 2-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 10 road starts. Sean Manaea has given up 16 hits and nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings this month.

> both starting pitchers at Citi Field for this matchup have not been up to par
## The line and the total
Sportsbooks make the Mets -130 home favorites with the over/under set at 8.5 total runs. Both clubs are sitting near the bottom of their divisions.
## Soto owns this pitcher
The five-time All-Star is 3-for-5 against Baz in eight career plate appearances, with a home run and an RBI already on the ledger.
## Fastballs are his food
Baz leans on a four-seamer for 34.4 percent of his pitches. Soto is hitting .294 against fastballs this season with 53 hits and 17 home runs.

> He has a good chance to go yard in this matchup.
## The play, not the side
Manaea's September keeps the writer off the Mets moneyline. The bet is narrower: Juan Soto to record a home run at +320 on FanDuel.

> THE PLAY: Juan Soto to record a Home Run (+320, FanDuel)
## Key takeaway

Soto has homered off Shane Baz before, and Baz throws the exact pitch Soto punishes: the four-seam fastball.