# Your energy bill could jump £318 in January > Two suppliers now expect the January price cap to blow past £2,000, and the forecasts land in the coldest, most expensive month of the year. - Title: Your energy bill could jump £318 in January · Dailymail - Summary: Two suppliers now expect the January price cap to blow past £2,000, and the forecasts land in the coldest, most expensive month of the year. The October rise… - Keywords: energy bills, price cap, cost of living, gas prices, uk economy, news, entertainment, energy, bill, jump, 318, January - Source: Dailymail — https://dailymail.com/money/bills/article-16130361/Energy-bills-rise-318-year-January-price-cap-predicted-balloon-thanks-surging-wholesale-costs.html?ito=1490&ns_campaign=1490&ns_mchannel=rss - Published: 2026-09-14T15:52:29+00:00 - Read time: 3 min - Topics: energy bills, price cap, cost of living, gas prices, uk economy, news, entertainment ## A £318 winter shock Ovo Energy forecasts the January 2027 price cap could reach £2,041 a year for a typical household. That is £318 more than the cap taking effect in October. ## Where the cap sits today A household with typical usage paying by direct debit is capped at £1,663 a year right now. Every forecast in this story is measured against that number. ## October already stings Ofgem confirmed in August that the cap rises 4 per cent on 1 October for standard variable tariffs. That is about £60 more a year, and the highest level in three years. ## A third are shielded More than a third of households are on fixed tariffs, so the October increase does not touch their unit rates at all. Everyone else absorbs it. ## EOn's number is £2,027 The supplier expects the January cap, announced towards the end of November, to land more than £300 above today's level at £2,027 a year. ## Nearly 18 per cent EOn puts the jump from October's cap to January's at close to 18 per cent, taking a standard variable bill from £1,723 to £2,027 a year. ## Ovo goes higher still Ovo's own forecast sits slightly above EOn's at £2,041 for the year. Two suppliers, two methods, same direction of travel. ## Nothing is official yet No figure has been confirmed. Cornwall Insight, the consultancy whose forecasts usually set expectations, will not publish its next numbers until the end of this month. ## Gas at a three-year high Craig Lowrey of Cornwall Insight points at the Middle East as the driver. Renewed conflict has pushed wholesale gas to levels not seen in three years. > Renewed tension in the Middle East has pushed gas prices to a three-year high. ## The clock is barely started Ofgem sets the January cap from a three month observation window, and we are only weeks into it. What matters is not today's spike but how long it lasts. > A short burst of high prices won't move the cap much on its own, but the longer prices stay raised, the more that movement becomes embedded. ## Europe's tanks are low Even a retreat in wholesale prices may not rescue January. Gas storage across the continent is thin, which leaves little cushion when demand peaks. > gas storage across Europe is running low, and that combination makes higher prices in January increasingly likely ## Roughly £25 a month Joe Lytwyn of thimbl works an 18 per cent rise out to about £25 extra a month averaged over the year. The catch is that it arrives in January, when usage peaks. > Averaged across a year, that is roughly another £25 a month ## The figure can still move Wholesale markets shift fast, and the cap is not just a gas price. Ofgem folds in network costs, policy costs and supplier allowances before it publishes. > Wholesale markets can move quickly, and the final figure will depend on market conditions and the other costs Ofgem includes when it sets the cap. ## The cap is not a ceiling It limits what suppliers charge per unit of energy and through standing charges. Your actual bill still rises and falls with how much gas and electricity you burn. ## 22 million exposed About 11 million households, roughly 35 per cent, sit on fixed tariffs. Around 22 million across England, Wales and Scotland are on tariffs the cap controls. ## Fixing can beat it Outfox has an 18 month dual fuel fix priced 0.8 per cent under the current cap. Sainsbury's Fix and Reward runs 24 months at £1,686, which is £37 below October's cap. ## Read the small print Before locking in, check exit fees, the supplier's reputation and contract length. A long fix that turns out badly priced is expensive to walk away from. ## Oil and petrol climbing Brent is trading around $108 after a 10 per cent weekly climb, petrol has hit a four year peak, and ONS figures show gas prices up 128 per cent in a year. ## Strikes in the Gulf The overnight surge followed new attacks on Saudi Arabian and Iranian ships, plus the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline. ## A promise going backwards Ed Miliband pledged to cut bills by £300 this parliament. With borrowing costs at a 28 year peak, mortgage rates climbing and tax rises not ruled out, bills may end up close to £500 higher. ## Key takeaway The October rise is the small one. January is where the real increase lands, so check a fixed deal now rather than after the cap is announced in late November.