Yellow Jackets stumble out of the gate

Georgia Tech opened 0-2 with just two offensive touchdowns in two games, one of the worst run defenses in the country, and poor line-of-scrimmage play on both sides.

“This was not the start that Brent Key had envisioned a few weeks ago.”

Power ratings tank after rough start

Georgia Tech's poor performance has sent them tumbling in ESPN's Football Power Index and other rating systems, which now project their win probability for each remaining game.

Mercer matchup should be a win

Georgia Tech faces Mercer with a 93% win probability, a chance to build confidence after two straight losses and get back on track before tougher ACC competition.

Stanford trip becomes must-win

At Stanford, Georgia Tech has only 57% win probability despite more talent. The Cardinal play well at home with a physical defense that limits the run.

“If Georgia Tech still hopes to make a bowl game, this is going to be a must win.”

Duke poses bowl-deciding threat

Duke has surprised with wins over Tulane and Illinois, featuring one of the country's best running backs in Nate Sheppard. Georgia Tech has only 42% win probability despite Brent Key being 3-0 against Duke.

Virginia Tech road test looks bleak

Georgia Tech has just 22% win probability at Virginia Tech, which has started well under James Franklin despite playing overmatched opponents. The road environment in Blacksburg heavily favors the Hokies.

Boston College homecoming opportunity

Georgia Tech has 74% win probability against Boston College, which was blown out by Cincinnati but beat Rutgers. This homecoming game in late October is one Georgia Tech must win.

Pitt's offense poses defensive nightmare

Georgia Tech has only 18% win probability at Pittsburgh, where Pitt's excellent offense matches up poorly against Georgia Tech's defensive struggles. The road disadvantage makes this a near-certain loss.

Louisville test at home still unlikely

Louisville is an ACC title contender that Georgia Tech faces at home with only 27% win probability. Brent Key is 0-2 against Jeff Brohm's Cardinals and will need significant improvement to change that.

Clemson road curse continues

Georgia Tech has 33% win probability at Clemson, which has looked poor this season. Georgia Tech hasn't beaten the Tigers on the road since 2008, and both offenses struggling could make this a low-scoring affair.

Wake Forest's balanced team threatens bowl hopes

Wake Forest is 2-0 with wins over Akron and Purdue, featuring an explosive offense and disruptive defensive line under Jake Dickert. Georgia Tech has 49% win probability in this bowl-deciding matchup.

Georgia game nearly impossible

Georgia Tech has just 3% win probability against Georgia, despite playing close games under Brent Key with single-digit losses each year. The Bulldogs are heavily favored through the first two weeks.

Bowl math gets complicated fast

Georgia Tech needs six wins to reach a bowl game. With FPI giving them under 50% odds in most remaining games, reaching that threshold requires winning nearly every favorable matchup.

Winnable games are limited

Georgia Tech's best chances come against Mercer (93%), Boston College (74%), and Wake Forest (49%). Wins in most other games would be considered upsets based on FPI projections.

Key's job security on the line

Brent Key's early tenure at Georgia Tech is being tested by a brutal schedule and poor start. The next 10 games will determine whether he can salvage the season and his job.