Deaths to outnumber births by the two thousand sixties

Australia's seventh intergenerational report projects more Australians will die than be born within forty years as fertility rates fall and the population ages significantly.

Other advanced economies already there

Japan, Germany, Italy and the Republic of Korea have already reached this milestone, with most other advanced economies expected to follow over coming decades.

Population growth slowing dramatically

The population will grow by zero point nine percent for the foreseeable future, down from one point four percent historically, as the share of working Australians shrinks.

Economy entering era of lower growth

Real GDP per person will expand by about one point two percent over the next forty years, down from one point five percent in the previous four decades.

AI seen as key to future productivity

Treasurer Jim Chalmers described artificial intelligence as the biggest economic transformation of our lifetime, essential to achieving productivity growth assumptions needed for the forecasts.

“the biggest economic transformation of our lifetime”

Six major transitions ahead

The report identifies six major challenges for the next forty years: the AI revolution, geopolitical fragmentation, energy transition, ageing and care economy, industrial transformation, and intergenerational equity.

Structural budget deficit projected ahead

The IGR projects an ongoing structural budget deficit over coming decades. Government payments as a share of GDP are anticipated to rise by one point one percentage points to twenty seven point four percent by the mid-two thousand sixties.

Chalmers warns of fraying social contract

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the world is becoming more dangerous, unpredictable, unequal and divided, describing these as part of a bigger fraying of the intergenerational promise of better times.

“The world is becoming more dangerous, more unpredictable, more unequal, and more divided.”

Reforms needed to manage spending challenges

The report says maintaining a sustainable budget position will require policies and ongoing reforms that manage growing spending and revenue challenges as structural trends intensify.