Two visions for Australia's migration

Labor and One Nation present starkly different views on migration policy. Pauline Hanson's party wants to cut temporary migrants by more than 750,000 over three years.

One Nation's plan: negative migration

To cut 750,000 temporary migrants, One Nation says net overseas migration must turn negative for three years, then cap at 130,000 annually. Labor targets 225,000.

Burke warns of economic damage

Tony Burke, home affairs minister, said One Nation's plan would trash Australian services and the economy. Hanson blames high population growth for economic woes.

“trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy”

Hanson points to Canada's example

Hanson says Australians have been in a per-capita recession for years because of migration. She claims Canada shows living standards improve when migration is cut.

“Australians have been in a per-capita recession for years. Their lives have been getting worse because of migration. Canada has shown living standards improve when migration is cut.”

Canada's different approach

Canada has not targeted a specific net overseas migration level. Instead it reduced temporary migrants as a share of population from a peak of 7.6% in 2024 to 5%.

Canada's population growth slows sharply

Canada's annual population growth slowed from 3.1% in early 2024 to just 0.5% now. The country reduced temporary arrivals, particularly international students.

Canadian economists: economy is adjusting

The CD Howe Institute forecast real GDP growth in Canada at 0.5% in 2026 and little more than 1% long-term. But economists say this reflects normal adjustment, not a broken economy.

“Canada's economy is not broken. It is adjusting.”

Royal Bank economist: resilience evident

Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, says the Canadian economy has been relatively resilient. Per capita economy looks like it is getting better.

“the Canadian economy has been relatively resilient”

Australia's situation differs sharply

Jonathan Kearns, chief economist at Challenger, says Canada's post-pandemic surge was far larger than Australia's. Canada's population sits 5% above pre-Covid trend; Australia's is just 0.2% above.

Labour market conditions are opposite

Canada began its migration crackdown during high unemployment after interest rate hikes. Australia would do so with unemployment at 4.6% and widespread labour shortages.

Luci Ellis: cyclical factors matter

Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis says you cannot simply point to Canada and say they did okay. Cyclical factors and recovery from recession helped Canada's resilience.

“I don't think you can just point to Canada and say, 'Look, they did OK.'”

Ageing populations pose long-term risk

Canada, like Australia, is ageing. The CD Howe Institute says if low population growth became permanent, Canada's economy would be 11.5% smaller by 2060.

Experts see temporary adjustment, not reset

Nathan Janzen says without immigration, labour shortages will be structural. The view is Canada's crackdown is temporary, before returning to historical immigration rates.