Intelligence warns of Russian test

European intelligence chiefs have told the Guardian that Russia is preparing to test Nato's resolve with an attack on European soil, with one source suggesting it could come within months, not years.

Poland and France sound alarm

Polish prime minister Donald Tusk told parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia might launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in coming months. French president Emmanuel Macron summoned party leaders for an emergency meeting to discuss similar warnings.

Sources willing to go on record

Shaun Walker, the Guardian's special correspondent for eastern Europe, says his intelligence sources were unusually willing to be quoted by name, suggesting they want to get a message out about the threat.

Not as concrete as 2022

Walker notes these warnings are not at the level of early twenty twenty-two, when American intelligence repeatedly warned Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine and had hard evidence of the Kremlin's plans.

Shadow war escalates

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine four and a half years ago, a systematic campaign of sabotage has developed, designed to seed chaos among Ukraine's allies while making Russian involvement difficult to prove conclusively.

Fires at defence facilities

Since the beginning of this year, there have been unexplained fires at defence facilities supplying Ukraine in Italy, Bulgaria, Estonia and Slovakia. An explosives-laden drone was discovered next to a Ukrainian cargo plane at Germany's Leipzig airport.

Recruitment and arson campaigns

Authorities in Denmark warned Russia is recruiting Danish citizens to sabotage defence firms with ties to Ukraine. In Lithuania, an Ikea was set on fire. In France, five coffins inscribed with the words French soldiers in Ukraine were left under the Eiffel Tower.

“French soldiers in Ukraine”

Disinformation and arson in UK

The Rycroft review found online disinformation from hostile foreign states including Russia was warping political discourse when it published in March. Two Russian-linked arsonists who targeted property connected to former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer were jailed in June.

EU politicians reject grey zone label

Some EU politicians are getting irritated with the term hybrid war, arguing that such direct attacks amount to more than grey zone activity. European governments have become quicker to publicly call out Russian involvement.

Germany expels diplomats

After the Leipzig incident, Germany expelled more than one hundred fifty Russian diplomats and promised tighter border controls for Russians entering Germany. However, one suspect reportedly entered Europe using an Italian tourist visa.

EU sanctions and shadow fleet

EU sanctions blacklist Russian banks and energy companies, as well as entities in the United Arab Emirates, Thailand and China for helping Moscow evade western restrictions. There is growing willingness to clamp down on Russia's shadow fleet in the Baltic and North seas.

Diplomatic measures questioned

While some argue these diplomatic and economic measures do not go far enough, others worry that more decisive responses would risk dragging the bloc into military escalation with Russia.

Russia's calculation

Russia is working to exploit the fact that even the most hawkish people in Nato countries would really like to avoid having a direct conflict, according to intelligence assessments.

“they know even the most hawkish people in Nato countries would really like to avoid having a direct conflict”

Baltic states caution against panic

The secretary general of Estonia's foreign ministry, Jonatan Vseviov, has cautioned against panic on social media. Baltic states remain the strongest voices for tangible responses but are aware most of Russia's military capability is tied up in Ukraine.

Chronic not acute threat

Baltic states prefer western Europe to see the Russian threat as chronic rather than acute, concerned that narratives of tanks rolling into Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could harm their societies and economies.

Trump's scepticism looms

European leaders at the UN this week will be keen to create a united front while wary of interventions from Donald Trump, who has previously dismissed concerns that Russia will strike a Baltic country to test Nato resolve and repeatedly criticised the alliance.

Russia's risk appetite growing

Shaun Walker notes that Russia does not want direct confrontation with the West but it is clear that their risk appetite is increasing. The scale of sabotage has led some military voices to suggest Europe is already at war.

Not war, but aggressive methods

Walker argues there is a clear campaign from Russia using methods that are not military but are pretty aggressive. Some people may consider them close to war, but it is clearly nothing like the war in Ukraine.

“There is a clear campaign from Russia, using methods that are not military, but are pretty aggressive.”

Governments face domestic bind

European governments face a bind domestically. If they spend on defence rather than social issues, those social issues worsen and voters move to the populist right, bringing leaders sympathetic to Russia into power.

Finding the careful path

European governments must find a careful path between dismissing the Russian threat as fake and alarmist rhetoric that every other issue is secondary to war.

“There's a careful path between dismissing this as a fake threat and the kind of alarmist rhetoric that we're on the path to war and every other issue is secondary.”