From the Guardian · · 2m
Greens surge in cities, threatening Labour strongholds
New polling shows the Green party closing the gap with Labour in urban areas, potentially winning 40 seats at the next election.
In brief
New polling shows the Green party closing the gap with Labour in urban areas, potentially winning 40 seats at the next election. Labour's urban progressive voters are shifting to the Greens, and aggressive attacks on the party risk backfiring with this key demographic. Originally reported by the Guardian.
Greens close gap with Labour in cities

A new poll by ThinkLabour shows the Green party is just four points behind Labour in urban constituencies across the UK. If replicated at the next election, the Greens could win as many as 40 seats.
“The Greens are just four points behind Labour in urban constituencies across the UK”
Urban voters shifting to Greens since 2024
Green support has jumped 12 points in major cities since the general election, while Labour's vote share fell by 20 points. The shift has been especially pronounced among financially struggling voters, not just affluent progressives.
Polanski challenges Starmer's old seat
Green party leader Zack Polanski is standing for parliament in Keir Starmer's former constituency of Holborn and St Pancras in next month's byelection. The poll highlights the challenge Labour faces holding this traditionally safe seat.
Labour's attacks on Greens backfire

The report warns Labour politicians should avoid direct attacks on the Greens, as urban progressive voters view such criticism as "kicking a puppy." Voters who consider voting Green dislike aggressive tactics from Labour.
“The sorts of people who would consider voting Labour consider attacking the Greens like kicking a puppy.”
Urban voters unsure what Labour stands for
The poll found that urban voters feel they don't know Labour's values, partly because of controversial early decisions like cutting winter fuel payments. This confusion is driving progressives toward the Greens.
Foreign policy attacks work best on Greens
Researchers found that attacks on the Greens over foreign policy were most effective with voters Labour is trying to win back. Criticisms over drug legalisation and personal attacks on Polanski were viewed as less credible.
Immigration focus could win back progressives

The report suggests Labour should focus immigration reforms on tackling small boat crossings rather than legal migration restrictions. Progressives can support tough action on boats but oppose broader restrictions on legal migrants.
Burnham bounce hasn't fully registered yet
The poll was conducted as Andy Burnham took office, so it doesn't capture the full effect of his early popularity gains with progressive voters. Labour has since pulled level with Reform UK in some measures.
The main idea
Labour's urban progressive voters are shifting to the Greens, and aggressive attacks on the party risk backfiring with this key demographic.


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