From the Guardian · · 3m
Labor's western suburbs crumble as One Nation rises
Melbourne's working-class heartland, once Labor's safest seats, swings sharply away as cost of living and broken promises drive voters toward One Nation.
In brief
Melbourne's working-class heartland, once Labor's safest seats, swings sharply away as cost of living and broken promises drive voters toward One Nation. Labor's traditional working-class seats in Melbourne's west are swinging away from the party, with One Nation emerging as an alternative as voters cite cost of…
Three votes, one bakery
Outside Beirut Bakehouse in Taylors Lakes, 20km north-west of Melbourne, three working-class men will vote for three different parties in next month's state election. Ivan is trying One Nation. Antonio remains Labor. Brian leans Liberal.
“They're all working class here and that's basically what Labor is. But I suppose they feel abandoned.”
Labor's stronghold crumbles
In Sydenham, where all three men are enrolled, Labor's primary vote fell 17.8% in 2022 and its two-party-preferred vote dropped below 60% for the first time in three decades. Sitting MP Natalie Hutchins is retiring.
Swings across the west
In neighbouring St Albans, Labor's primary vote fell 18.4%.Farther north in Greenvale, there was a swing of almost 15% against Labor on a two-party preferred basis.In Yan Yean it was 11.3%.
Working-class, mortgage-exposed seats
These seats are among the most diverse in Victoria and predominantly working-to-middle class. Most households are paying off mortgages, meaning they are exposed to rising interest rates.
Labor ignored the warning
Before the 2022 election, pollster Kos Samaras warned these seats would swing away after Covid lockdowns. He says Labor has done little since to win voters back, banking on them never going Liberal.
“They clearly ignored it. They banked it, they thought that 'it doesn't matter how much we absorb out there, it doesn't go to the Liberal party'. They just didn't factor in that One Nation will be around to provide these people a home.”
Cost of living hits local business
Jenny, who owns an Asian grocery store in St Albans and has lived there 20 years, says her main concern is cost of living.
“The interest [rates are] too high for the customer, so they try to save money on fruit and veg.”
Crime and drugs fuel discontent
Locals raise crime and drug use as high concerns.As students take year 12 exams at the St Albans community centre, plastic baggies and syringes litter Errington Reserve.YouTuber TJ calls drug use a massive problem.
“I'm not here to dis my home town but this is the reality.”
Broken promises on infrastructure
Shyam Padala, who lives in Melton, says the western suburbs have been completely forgotten by Labor.
“It will never come. When we die it will come.”
Perceptions of One Nation shift
TJ remembers the anti-Asian rhetoric of the 1990s when Pauline Hanson first rose to prominence, but says the perception of her has since shifted among voters in the diverse western suburbs.
“Back then they looked at her as super-racist, but now they're looking [at her] as a saviour. So it's changed completely.”
Labor's achievements not enough
TJ acknowledges Labor's achievements in the area, including level crossing removals on the Sunbury line and the Joan Kirner Women's and Children's hospital. But he says as costs increase, it is not enough.
Voters want a fresh face
TJ says people are digging deeper into their pockets with nothing left. They want change drastically and do not want the Liberals or Labor. They want a fresh face.
“People are digging deeper into their pockets and they've got nothing left. They want change drastically and they don't want the Liberals or Labor. They want a fresh face.”
At a glance
Labor's traditional working-class seats in Melbourne's west are swinging away from the party, with One Nation emerging as an alternative as voters cite cost of living and unmet infrastructure promises.
