Merz faces make-or-break Sunday

German chancellor Friedrich Merz watches two state elections with his political future hanging in the balance after only sixteen months in power.

AfD surges after Saxony-Anhalt shock

Two weeks ago the far-right Alternative für Deutschland scored its highest ever regional result in Saxony-Anhalt, emboldening the anti-immigration party to target further gains.

Brutal results could force Merz out

A poor showing on Sunday could trigger his replacement as leader or even snap elections, currently unlikely but no longer ruled out by German political observers.

Two million voters decide the outcome

About two point five million people are eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly one point three million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polls open at eight am and close at six pm on Sunday.

Merz vows to fight on despite crisis

The chancellor cancelled his UN speech, saying his presence is required in Berlin. His approval rating has nosedived to ten percent after broken promises on growth and cutting the AfD.

“We as a government were elected for four years, I was elected for four years. And I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period.”

Berlin battle over housing crisis

In Berlin, Merz's CDU competes with the far-left Die Linke over housing. About eighty five percent of households rent, and advertised rents have nearly doubled since twenty fourteen.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania looks dire

In the Baltic state, the CDU risks its first single-digit result in seventy five years. If it falls below five percent, it crashes out of parliament entirely, unprecedented in the postwar period.

Replacement risk rises sharply

Holger Schmieding at Berenberg bank estimates the risk of CDU revolt and Merz's replacement has risen from twenty percent ten days ago to roughly thirty five percent now.

Economic pain fuels AfD's appeal

Soaring living costs, deindustrialisation and Chinese competition have angered voters. The AfD mobilised non-voters by focusing on economic anxiety, crime fears and opposition to Merz's Ukraine support.