From the Guardian · · 1m 20s
Premier League Goals Falling Short
Premier League teams scoring fewer goals than expected this season.
In brief
Premier League teams scoring fewer goals than expected this season. Premier League teams are scoring fewer goals than expected this season due to underperforming xG, with Spurs leading the underachievers. Originally reported by the Guardian.
Premier League goal averages
Premier League goal averages are dropping as players take fewer touches in the box and forwards underperform against expected goals.
Spurs lead underperforming teams
Spurs have scored fewer goals than expected this season, with only two teams in the top flight scoring fewer goals than expected.
Underperforming xG trend
Fourteen clubs have scored fewer goals than expected this season, up from ten last season, with eight teams within a goal of their underlying numbers.
Week-by-week underperformance
Twenty-four teams scored at least one goal fewer than expected across the first five match weeks, twice as many as last season's opening 50 games.
Manchester United's issues
Manchester United have scored fewer goals than expected, with only one club they played finishing in the top 10 last season and five goals against Championship runners-up Ipswich.
Player xG underperformance
The top players from each club have collectively scored 6.8 fewer non-penalty goals than expected, almost 40% of the division's goal shortfall.
What happens next
Excessive reliance on players who underperform could prove a small-sample statistical quirk that is quickly remedied, but goal rates may not reach expected levels soon.
In short
Premier League teams are scoring fewer goals than expected this season due to underperforming xG, with Spurs leading the underachievers.
