From the Guardian · · 3m
Sahel violence hits record as al-Qaida and IS groups expand
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Africa's Sahel region has become the new center of Islamist extremist violence.
In brief
Twenty-five years after 9/11, Africa's Sahel region has become the new center of Islamist extremist violence. While global terrorism deaths have fallen, the Sahel region now accounts for over 9,000 deaths annually as al-Qaida and IS-linked groups expand control. Originally reported by the Guardian.
Sahel violence reaches historic highs
Islamist extremist attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger jumped from 63 incidents in 2016 to 2,845 in 2025. Over 2,145 events have already occurred this year.
Deaths surge despite global decline
While terrorism deaths worldwide fell to their lowest since 2008, the Sahel recorded over 9,000 deaths from security incidents in 2025 alone.
“Terrorism has become more geographically concentrated: the Sahel continued to record some of the world's highest terrorism death tolls”
JNIM launches devastating Mali offensive
In April, al-Qaida-linked JNIM and Tuareg rebels attacked strategic towns with car bombs and drones. Mali's defense minister died in a suicide attack on his residence.
Russian mercenaries surrender at Kidal
Rebels seized the strategic city of Kidal after soldiers fled and Russian mercenaries surrendered, reversing a key victory won by Mali's junta three years ago.
JNIM expands across Burkina Faso
The group claimed over 130 attacks in Burkina Faso this year, striking closer to the capital Ouagadougou and broadening operations in neighboring countries.
Sahel groups stay local, not global
JNIM has distanced itself from al-Qaida's historic goal of attacking the US. Not a single attack in Europe or America has been planned in the Sahel.
“In the Sahel, Islamic State and al-Qaida now command big areas but these are very localised groups”
Al-Shabaab dominates Somalia's countryside
The al-Qaida-linked group remains one of Africa's deadliest, with over 10,000 deaths in related violence over the past 18 months. Its revenue streams stretch across the region.
Africa wasn't always the focus
Twenty-five years ago, al-Qaida concentrated on Afghanistan and Iraq. The continent barely featured in strategic planning then but is now the main area of operations.
Al-Qaida leadership remains unclear
The UN describes al-Qaida senior leadership as marginalised. No successor has been formally declared since Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed by the US in Kabul in 2022.
Saif al-Adel leads from Iran
The 66-year-old is believed to be the de facto leader, based in Iran since 2002. He has yet to make any public statement in his role.
Yemen group still targets the West
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula remains committed to attacking the US. In May, it released a video calling on Muslims in Europe and America to carry out local attacks.
Different intentions, different capabilities
Sahel groups like JNIM mobilize tens of thousands of fighters, far more than al-Qaida had before 9/11. But their intentions and capabilities differ vastly from 25 years ago.
The essence
While global terrorism deaths have fallen, the Sahel region now accounts for over 9,000 deaths annually as al-Qaida and IS-linked groups expand control.
