A 0.3-point election

Sweden votes Sunday with the left and right blocs separated by a third of a percentage point. The far right could enter government for the first time.

Andersson is the favourite

Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats is tipped to return as prime minister after four years out. But her bloc's lead shrank sharply in the final days.

The taboo already broke

In 2022 Ulf Kristersson of the Moderates cut a deal with the Sweden Democrats to get his minority coalition into office. It was the first crack in the wall.

Now they want the posts

That deal handed SD outsized sway over crime and immigration policy from outside. Kristersson has gone further and promised them actual ministries this time.

Part of a European pattern

The vote lands days after Germany's AfD won a state election outright, and with Marine Le Pen leading polls for next year's French presidency.

The human rights cost

Rights lawyers say Sweden's standing has already slid: teenagers deported, the age of criminal responsibility lowered, 14-year-olds sent to adult prisons.

“For some time Sweden has been seen as the exception.”

What SD is promising

Its manifesto pledges to write "anti-Swedish sentiment" into hate speech law, revoke permanent residence permits and cut immigration further.

“Make Sweden Sweden again”

The left won't roll it back

Chasing lost voters, the Social Democrats hardened their own line on crime and immigration. A left win slows the trend rather than reversing it.

“Many of the things we see as problematic are not going to be rolled back.”

Small parties hold the keys

The tiny Liberals, whose leader has warmed to SD's Jimmie Åkesson, may decide if the right can govern. Centre turnout and a Left party surge matter on the other side.

Sunday night, then months

Voters rank healthcare, law and order, immigration and the economy highest. Results come Sunday night, but coalition talks could drag on for weeks or months.