Trump declares ceasefire nobody knew about

Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday via Truth Social without consulting either side. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was news to him.

“news to me”

Putin responds by attacking power plants

Vladimir Putin responded to Trump's ceasefire announcement by blowing up some Ukrainian power plants, continuing the fighting rather than halting it.

UK doubles down on Ukraine support

Andy Burnham hosted Zelenskyy at Downing Street, stating the UK is doubling down on its support for Ukraine and pointedly calling on others to follow suit.

Trump restricts Ukrainian Starlink access

Ukraine's military has had its access to Starlink satellite internet terminals restricted as the Trump administration increased pressure on Ukraine to halt long-range strikes on Russia's oil industry.

Why peace deals fail: the overlap problem

Career diplomat Nigel Gould-Davies explains that a peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe it better serves their interests to end fighting than to continue.

“A peace agreement is only possible when both sides believe that it better serves their interests to end the fighting than to continue”

Ukraine willing to accept ceasefire

Ukraine has repeatedly said it is willing to accept an unconditional ceasefire. Russia, by contrast, has repeatedly said publicly it is not interested in a ceasefire.

Russia demands Ukraine's complete defeat

Russia is only interested in a full and final end to the war that means decisive superiority and dominance over a severely weakened Ukraine, an outcome Ukraine cannot accept.

Trump's ceasefire had no basis in reality

Gould-Davies says Trump's energy ceasefire announcement had no basis whatsoever in reality. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv was aware. Trump simply made it up, a product of a fantasy.

Trump's natural gravity favors Russia

Trump's natural centre of gravity is to favour Russia, Gould-Davies says, citing restrictions on US weapons supplies and past pauses in intelligence sharing with Ukraine.

Trump's theory: coerce Ukraine, concede to Russia

For all Trump's lurching between positions, his theory of ending the war involves concessions to Russia and coercion of Ukraine, despite occasional support for Ukrainian targets.

Trump plans Russian diesel imports

Trump announced a plan to import Russian diesel in hopes of bringing down pump prices ahead of next month's midterms, dismaying European leaders and a bipartisan group of US senators.

Diesel deal may hide bigger pro-Russia shift

In diplomatic circles, concerns exist that the diesel deal is only the visible tip of the iceberg, with the White House privately pivoting towards a much more substantial pro-Russia tilt.

“is only the visible tip of the iceberg”

Trump may seek Iran concessions via Putin

Gould-Davies suspects Trump could be seeking to get Iran to ease the blockade on the strait of Hormuz via Russia, with Putin's quid pro quo being easing of sanctions and ending US support for Ukraine.

Diplomats see collective delusion in talks

Gould-Davies worries that diplomatic back channels perpetuate the illusion that peace may be around the corner, when there is literally no evidence Russia can be persuaded to change course.

Europe focuses diplomacy on Washington

European leaders and diplomats have descended on Washington when Trump veered too far off course, an Avengers assemble approach that has proved effective in averting the nightmare scenario of Trump abandoning transatlantic partners.

White House is fractured, not unified

The White House consists of many different players with different views from Trump. CIA director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow this summer, reportedly hoping to warn Russia against escalation into Europe.

Diplomats play White House Kremlinology

Western diplomats continue trying to shift the balance of influences within the White House, relying on understanding the different views and moods of those around Trump and who will be the last person to whisper…