Trump's Russia diesel deal unlikely to lower US fuel prices

Experts say the quantities are too small and shipping too slow to affect prices before midterm elections.

Oct 11, 2026

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Trump's Russia diesel deal unlikely to lower US fuel prices

Experts say the quantities are too small and shipping too slow to affect prices before midterm elections.

In brief

Experts say the quantities are too small and shipping too slow to affect prices before midterm elections. Donald Trump's deal with Vladimir Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel imports will have little meaningful effect on US fuel prices, analysts say, because quantities are small and delivery takes weeks…

Trump lifts sanctions on Russian diesel

Trump lifts sanctions on Russian diesel

Donald Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to temporarily lift US sanctions on Russian diesel imports.The agreement aims to reduce fuel prices, which have soared since Trump's decision to go to war against Iran.

The shipment sizes and timeline

The deal involves three hundred thousand tonnes of diesel released immediately, five hundred thousand tonnes in November, and a further one million tonnes after that.

Diesel prices have surged since Iran war

Diesel prices have surged since Iran war

US diesel prices have surged by almost seventy percent since the start of the Iran war, to about six dollars and thirty cents a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association.

Experts say the deal is too little, too late

Energy analyst Ashley Kelty said the first shipment is too small to affect prices.Vessels must be chartered, loaded and transported to the US, taking about three weeks.

“It is not going to have any impact on prices. The first amount is so small.”

Zelenskyy calls the deal weak

Volodymyr Zelenskyy described Trump's deal as a weak decision, saying it would encourage Russia to keep attacking Ukraine.

Trump announces energy ceasefire

Trump announces energy ceasefire

Trump posted on Truth Social that an energy ceasefire was in effect between Russia and Ukraine, saying both parties had agreed.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine.”

Deal unlikely to meet full terms

Maximilian Hess, founder of Enmetena Advisory, said the deal's full terms are highly unlikely to be met because Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries and limited diesel output.

“The whole point of the deal for Putin is that it fails, which he can blame on Ukraine.”

The big picture

Donald Trump's deal with Vladimir Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel imports will have little meaningful effect on US fuel prices, analysts say, because quantities are small and delivery takes weeks.

Read the original on the Guardian

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