From the Guardian · · 2m
UK jobless rate falls to 4.7% ahead of Healey budget
Unemployment drops unexpectedly as job vacancies hit their lowest in over a decade, signalling a labour market losing momentum.
In brief
Unemployment drops unexpectedly as job vacancies hit their lowest in over a decade, signalling a labour market losing momentum. UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, beating forecasts, but job vacancies slumped to their lowest since 2021, suggesting economic stagnation. Originally reported by the…
Jobless rate falls to 4.7%
The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, down from 4.9%, according to the Office for National Statistics. City economists had forecast a rise to 5%.
Payroll numbers rise slightly
The number of payrolled employees rose by 13,000 between August and September, reaching 30.3 million, providing further positive news for the chancellor.
Job vacancies hit twelve-year low
Job vacancies fell by 21,000 to 691,000 in the three months to September, the lowest since 2021 during the Covid pandemic. After hitting a peak of 1.3 million post-pandemic, the decline signals economic stagnation.
Economists warn of complacency
Ben Harrison, director of the Work Foundation thinktank at Lancaster University, said the fall in unemployment should not make the government complacent.
“The UK is still amid a jobs drought with vacancies at their lowest for over 12 years outside of the pandemic.”
Wage growth mixed, inflation rising
Average pay growth excluding bonuses rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, but fell to 3.7% from 3.9% when bonuses are included.Wage growth remains above inflation at 3.1% in August, expected to rise to 3.4% in September.
Rate rise expected in November
The pound rose against the dollar after the labour market figures were released.Ellie Henderson, an economist at Investec, said the MPC will increase the Bank rate by 0.
Young unemployment falls but remains high
The ONS estimated there were 715,000 unemployed young people aged 16 to 24, down by 28,000 on the quarter. However, jobless young people remain 54,000 higher than twelve months ago.
Labour market running on idle
Suren Thiru, chief economist at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, described the labour market as running on idle with employers limiting recruitment in response to surging cost pressures and pre-budget policy…
“The labour market as "running on idle" with employers limiting recruitment and pay awards "in response to surging cost pressures and pre-budget policy uncertainty".”
The main idea
UK unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, beating forecasts, but job vacancies slumped to their lowest since 2021, suggesting economic stagnation.
