Adobe's holiday sales forecast

Adobe Analytics expects U.S. online retail sales to hit $275.1 billion this holiday season, a 6.7% year-over-year increase

“Adobe's forecast is based on more than one trillion visits to U.S. ecommerce sites across 100 million products and 18 categories”

Consumer sentiment decline

Consumer sentiment has fallen 15% this year according to a September University of Michigan survey

AI traffic growth

AI traffic to U.S. ecommerce sites will rise 130% year over year during the holiday season

Buy now pay later surge

Buy now pay later will drive $21.3 billion in November and December, up 6.6% from last year

Circana's conservative view

Circana expects holiday sales to be more conservative than Adobe's forecast due to consumer financial strain

“Macroeconomically, we are starting to see a lot of the pressure that has been on people's shoulders around gas prices, broader affordability constraints, and the macroeconomic choices people are making”

Consumer optimism trends

Forty-five percent of consumers plan to start holiday shopping by October with focus on fun and comfort

“People have that as the undercurrent in their brains”

Top holiday sellers

Top sellers include Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, Grand Theft Auto VI, and new iPhone Duo

“We're not seeing that people are afraid to buy, but I think what they're buying are family moments”

Elf on the Shelf growth

Elf on the Shelf box-set revenue rose 90% year-over-year with pre-orders up 66%

“People truly are looking for nostalgia and comfort”

Walmart discount strategy

Walmart expects deep discounts with electronics peaking at 30% off listed prices

“We're ready to drive everyday low cost so that we can reinvest into price and experience”

Amazon Big Deal Days

Amazon's October Prime Day will drive $9.9 billion in spending with discounts peaking at 19% off

“Amazon's October event has changed the shape of the holiday season”