From CNBC · Davis Giangiulio · · 1m 30s
Democrats gain edge in Senate race, prediction markets show
Traders on betting platforms now give Democrats a 55-59% chance of flipping the Senate this November.
In brief
Traders on betting platforms now give Democrats a 55-59% chance of flipping the Senate this November. Prediction markets now favor Democrats to win Senate control, driven largely by high gas prices and Trump's declining approval ratings. Originally reported by CNBC.
Democrats now favored for Senate
Prediction market traders give Democrats a 55-59% chance of winning Senate control. This marks close to their best odds yet for flipping the chamber.
Republicans defending tough map
The GOP holds 22 of the 35 Senate seats up for election. Democrats must flip seats in states Trump won by 10% or more, including Alaska, Texas, and Ohio.
Iran war shifted the odds
Before the Iran war started on Feb. 28, Republicans had 60% odds to keep the Senate. Rising gas prices after the war began drove down Trump's approval.
GOP recovered over the summer
Democratic odds topped Republican odds in April, but GOP chances recovered in May and summer. The U.S. and Iran de-escalated the war, easing gas price pressure.
Energy prices hurt Republicans again
Oil is now above $100 per barrel, gas is over $4 a gallon nationally, and diesel prices hit all-time highs. Traders expect gas prices to reach new peaks this year.
Polls show Democratic momentum
A New York Times/Siena poll this week showed likely voters favoring Democratic candidates by close to 9 percentage points nationwide.
The one thing
Prediction markets now favor Democrats to win Senate control, driven largely by high gas prices and Trump's declining approval ratings.
