From CNBC · Ananya Chetia · · 1m
Democrats hit 74% odds to win Senate on prediction markets
Traders on Kalshi see Democrats' best chance yet at Senate control after a New York Times poll shows them leading in battleground states.
In brief
Traders on Kalshi see Democrats' best chance yet at Senate control after a New York Times poll shows them leading in battleground states. Prediction market traders on Kalshi now give Democrats a 74% chance of winning Senate control, their highest odds since the market opened in 2024. Originally reported by CNBC.
Democrats hit highest odds yet
Traders on Kalshi now see a 74% chance of Democrats winning Senate control, the highest odds for the party since the market opened in 2024.
Poll shows Democrats leading battlegrounds
A New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats leading in several battleground states, strengthening their path to a possible Senate majority.
Movement across multiple Senate races
Traders see 74% odds for Democrats in Texas, up from 68.4% in 24 hours. Iowa jumped to 50% from 42%. Kansas odds for Democrat Adam Hamilton over Republican Roger Marshall rose to 63% from 52%.
What it means
Prediction market traders on Kalshi now give Democrats a 74% chance of winning Senate control, their highest odds since the market opened in 2024.
