Trump's second term: jobs slow, inflation rises, crime falls

FactCheck.org's October 2026 update on Trump's economic record shows mixed results as midterm elections approach.

Oct 21, 2026

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Trump's second term: jobs slow, inflation rises, crime falls

FactCheck.org's October 2026 update on Trump's economic record shows mixed results as midterm elections approach.

In brief

FactCheck.org's October 2026 update on Trump's economic record shows mixed results as midterm elections approach. Under Trump's second term, job growth slowed to seven hundred seventy-six thousand, inflation worsened to five point four percent, but violent crime and murder rates fell to historic lows in twenty…

Job growth slows sharply

Only seven hundred seventy-six thousand jobs were created between January twenty twenty-five and September twenty twenty-six, compared with two point six million in Biden's final twenty months.

Federal workforce cuts drive decline

Federal government employment fell by three hundred twenty-eight thousand, or ten point nine percent, since Trump took office, accounting for much of the job loss.

Manufacturing jobs still down

Manufacturing jobs still down

After Trump announced tariffs on April two, twenty twenty-five, manufacturing jobs continued to decline through December, losing eighty-two thousand more before recovering slightly this year.

Unemployment edges up but stays low

The unemployment rate rose from four percent in January twenty twenty-five to four point two percent in September, still well below the historical median of five point five percent.

Inflation worsens despite promises

Consumer prices rose five point four percent over Trump's first twenty months, up from three percent in the year before he took office. Gasoline prices jumped thirty-eight percent.

Wage gains erased this year

Inflation-adjusted wages rose one point eight three percent in Trump's first twelve months but have fallen zero point eight seven percent since then, wiping out earlier gains.

Economy grows at steady pace

Real gross domestic product grew two point two percent in the second quarter of twenty twenty-six, with the Federal Reserve projecting two point three percent growth for the full year.

Consumer sentiment remains low

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment was forty-six point three in October, down twenty-five point four points from seventy-one point seven when Trump took office.

Border apprehensions plummet

Migrant apprehensions at the southern border dropped nearly ninety-one percent over the last twelve months ending in August compared with Biden's final twelve months in office.

No asylum releases in seventeen months

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported no releases at the border in seventeen consecutive months, meaning no one caught crossing illegally was temporarily released into the country.

Refugee admissions drop nearly ninety percent

The U.S. admitted only sixteen thousand two hundred ninety-two refugees in fiscal year twenty twenty-six, down from one hundred sixty-two thousand five hundred thirty-six under Biden's final twenty months.

Afrikaners dominate refugee admissions

Nearly ninety-nine percent of all refugees admitted in Trump's first full twenty months were from South Africa, after Trump carved out an exemption for Afrikaners.

Food assistance enrollment drops sharply

About thirty-six point four million people participated in SNAP as of June, down more than six million from forty-two point four million in January twenty twenty-five.

Poverty rate falls to historic low

The official poverty rate dropped to ten point two percent in twenty twenty-five from ten point seven percent in twenty twenty-four. Child poverty fell to a historic low of thirteen point four percent.

Violent crime and murder rates plummet

The violent crime rate fell nine point seven percent and the murder rate dropped eighteen point five percent from twenty twenty-four to twenty twenty-five, the largest one-year declines since the FBI began collecting data in…

Murder rate hits historic low

The murder rate of four point one per one hundred thousand population in twenty twenty-five tied the FBI's nineteen fifty-five and nineteen fifty-six figures and was the lowest since nineteen hundred.

Experts cite multiple crime factors

The Council on Criminal Justice convened forty-eight experts who found no single dominant explanation for the crime decline. Easing pandemic disruption was rated a major contributor by fifty-seven percent.

“No single factor was viewed as the dominant explanation for the decline.”

Federal debt surges twelve point eight percent

The publicly held federal debt increased to more than thirty-two point five trillion dollars, up nearly twelve point eight percent since Trump began his second term in January.

Deficit hits two trillion dollars

The fiscal year twenty twenty-six deficit reached nearly two trillion dollars as the government spent a record almost seven point four trillion but received only about five point four trillion in revenue.

Stock market gains despite economic concerns

The S and P five hundred rose twenty-eight point six percent since January seventeen, twenty twenty-five, while the Nasdaq climbed thirty-four point six percent, setting new records despite low consumer sentiment.

The one thing

Under Trump's second term, job growth slowed to seven hundred seventy-six thousand, inflation worsened to five point four percent, but violent crime and murder rates fell to historic lows in twenty twenty-five.

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