Four years of stalled sales

U.S. existing-home sales have remained stuck at historically low levels since the pandemic-era housing demand surge ended and mortgage rates spiked.

The headline hides the reality

Monthly reports show existing-home sales rising or falling based on seasonally adjusted figures, but unadjusted data reveals sales have barely moved in four years.

September marks the milestone

This September reading officially marks four straight years of historically low resale turnover, according to the National Association of Realtors data.

The Ds of Housing floor

Since mid-twenty twenty-two, U.S. resale transactions have bounced along the Ds of Housing transaction floor: sales driven by necessity like death, divorce, disability.

“Ds of Housing”

Switching costs out of whack

Mortgage rates spiked and switching costs got out of whack after the pandemic surge ended, locking homeowners in place and suppressing resale activity.

Resilient and softer markets alike

Historically low sales have persisted across both resilient housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest and softer Sun Belt markets experiencing cyclical cooling.

The Resale Turnover Index

ResiClub's Resale Turnover Index adjusts for population change using owner-occupied households to allow apples-to-apples comparison across decades of data.

Bottom twenty-fifth percentile

The U.S. is now at four straight years in the bottom twenty-fifth percentile for resale turnover, what ResiClub calls historically low.

New homes tell a different story

U.S. new-home sales are down from pandemic peaks but still roughly on par with pre-pandemic levels in twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen.

Builders cut prices to survive

To maintain new-home sales, homebuilders especially in Sun Belt markets like Florida and Texas have made deeper cuts to net effective home prices.

Mortgage buydowns and cash back

Builders have used mortgage rate buydowns, cash back at closing, and outright price reductions to prevent steeper pullbacks in new-home sales.

Margins take the hit

These price-cutting strategies have come at the expense of homebuilder margins as they sacrifice profitability to keep sales from collapsing.

Sellers must adjust

In local markets where active inventory has spiked and existing-home sales press below the Ds of Housing floor, sellers will have to adjust to sell.

Softness spreading

Heading into the seasonally soft window, pockets of the Pacific Northwest, Texas, Florida, and Colorado are already seeing sellers forced to make adjustments.