From Foreign Policy · Raphael S. Cohen, Howard J. Shatz · · 3m
America’s Least Bad Option in Iran
Staying the course in Iran conflict is most prudent despite costs.
In brief
Staying the course in Iran conflict is most prudent despite costs. Maintaining economic pressure on Iran is strategically sound as alternatives risk greater damage. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Iran War Costs
The Iran war has cost the United States 800 casualties, tens of billions of dollars, hundreds of damaged or destroyed buildings on U.S.
Public Opposition Rising
Polls show most Americans do not believe there was sufficient reason for the United States to attack Iran, and public opposition to the war has increased over time.
Iranian Regime Stance
The Iranian regime seems disinclined to cease attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, stop regional proxies from attacking elsewhere, or curb its nuclear program.
Three Options
The United States has three options: ramp up the war, walk away from the conflict, or stay the current course of economic pressure and military response.
Current Course
Maintaining the blockade and economic pressure campaign, responding with force when Iran or its proxies strike, and pushing for negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the Iranian nuclear program.
Economic Impact on Iran
Iran’s currency recently traded at 2.5 million rials to the dollar, a dramatic depreciation from about 630,000 to the dollar in 2024, with inflation reaching almost 90 percent and food inflation at almost 130 percent.
Oil Storage Depleted
Iran’s floating oil storage, a shadow fleet of tankers anchored outside the Strait of Hormuz, is now depleted, increasing pressure on the Iranian economy.
Economic Coercion Risks
Economic coercion has a mixed track record in effecting regime change, with some examples of successful change but also cases where regimes maintained power despite economic pressure.
Current Course Benefits
The blockade is continuing to bite under economic conditions that some deem unbearable, with unemployment rising and this year’s GDP projected to shrink by 7.6 percent.
Ramping Up War Risks
Resuming a full-scale war to blow the entire nation up is unlikely to be feasible, as air campaigns alone have rarely succeeded in overthrowing a government.
Ground Force Risks
Removing the Iranian regime by ground power would be a Herculean undertaking, as Iran has nearly double the population and almost quadruple the territory compared to Iraq.
Kharg Island Seizure
The seizure of Kharg Island, an island around 20 miles off the Iranian coast that serves as the country’s hub for 90 percent of its oil exports, would aim to destabilize the regime or use…
Walking Away Costs
Walking away from the war would leave the Strait of Hormuz in Iranian hands, allowing the regime to tax transiting ships and fund its proxy militias across the region.
Regional Instability
A U.S. withdrawal would intensify regional conflicts, including the Israeli-Iranian conflict, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Yemeni civil war, and the Saudi Arabia-Houthi war.
Global Economic Impact
Iranian malign activity spans the globe, with Hezbollah active in Latin America and plots targeting civilians in Europe, increasing the risk of global instability.
Conclusion
Sticking with the current approach is unlikely to result in a clean and quick end to the war but is the least bad option given the alternatives.
The main idea
Maintaining economic pressure on Iran is strategically sound as alternatives risk greater damage.
