From Foreign Affairs · Daniel W. Drezner · · 4m
Trump's dangerous lame-duck years ahead
With Congress lost and no election in sight, a cornered Trump may lash out internationally in ways his predecessors never did.
In brief
With Congress lost and no election in sight, a cornered Trump may lash out internationally in ways his predecessors never did. Trump enters a second lame-duck period with Democrats controlling Congress, creating risk he will escalate conflicts with Iran or Cuba to salvage his legacy. Originally reported by Foreign…
Trump enters second lame-duck period
With the midterms over, President Donald Trump has lost control of Congress. He is the first president in one hundred years to serve two nonconsecutive terms, making him the only American leader in living memory…
Lame ducks typically turn to foreign policy
Second-term presidents who lose Congress often pivot to foreign policy, where presidential power operates unfettered by domestic politics.
Trump's first lame-duck was different
Trump already went through what was widely considered a lame-duck phase between November two thousand twenty and January two thousand twenty-one.
Democrats in control raises stakes
With Democrats soon to control the House and Senate, the threat of impeachment or investigations into the Trump family's business dealings will likely make the president feel cornered and angry.
Congress has limited power over foreign policy
A boxed-in Trump with no obvious constructive foreign policy outlet may well lash out internationally. Congress, even if controlled by Democrats, will have little power over his day-to-day management of foreign policy.
Iran and Cuba pose greatest risks
The two places where Trump can inflict the most damage are Iran and Cuba. According to The New York Times, the Trump administration and Israel have drawn up plans for fresh strikes on Iran as…
Iran strikes unlikely to work
A last-ditch effort to compel Tehran to surrender is unlikely to work and would put at risk the global economy and the security and stability of Persian Gulf allies.
Trump has exhausted obvious diplomatic moves
During his first term, Trump pulled out of the two thousand fifteen Iran nuclear deal, met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un three times, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement, and facilitated normalization between…
Spectacle diplomacy has reached its limits
Trump is not expected to return to most of these initiatives because he has reached the limits of what his spectacle-driven diplomacy can achieve.
Great-power concert unlikely to produce results
Perhaps the biggest swing Trump could take would be to fashion a great-power concert with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. But future summits are unlikely to produce anything of substance.
Putin and Xi unlikely to compromise
Neither Russia nor China has expressed much interest in the trilateral nuclear arms treaty that Trump has floated.Putin is not interested in compromise and has the resources to keep fighting.
Iran escalation risks economic crisis
Trump seems to believe that escalating the war could break the stalemate and rescue his legacy.But Iranian leaders will not back down and will probably ramp up attacks on commercial shipping.
Cuba embargo has worsened suffering
Trump has imposed a full-blown embargo on Cuba for most of two thousand twenty-six in an effort to weaken its defenses.
Regime change in Cuba is Rubio's priority
Ousting Cuba's government is a personal priority of Marco Rubio, Trump's secretary of state and national security adviser, and would align with the Donroe Doctrine, an assertion of U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere.
Regime change rarely works
Using force to achieve regime change rarely works and often leads to unpredictable consequences.In the case of Cuba, it might mean a new influx of refugees to the United States.
Trump family profiteering continues
Trump and his family members have accepted a jetliner from the emir of Qatar, a two billion dollar investment from a fund led by the Saudi crown prince, and profits from cryptocurrency enterprises.
Inaction may be the best outcome
The most surprising foreign policy option Trump could take during his lame-duck period is doing nothing at all.He has busied himself remaking Washington, D.C., by redecorating the Oval Office and designing a White House ballroom.
The main idea
Trump enters a second lame-duck period with Democrats controlling Congress, creating risk he will escalate conflicts with Iran or Cuba to salvage his legacy.
