From Foreign Policy · Deng Yuwen · · 2m
Xi’s Gang of Three
Xi Jinping relies on two lieutenants to balance power in China’s leadership.
In brief
Xi Jinping relies on two lieutenants to balance power in China’s leadership. Xi Jinping depends on Li Qiang and Cai Qi to manage party and government affairs without direct conflict. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Rumors of leadership succession
Rumors claim Premier Li Qiang will replace Xi Jinping as party general secretary at the Fifth Plenum.
Previous successor rumors
Before last year’s Fourth Plenum, Cai Qi was rumored to be Xi Jinping’s successor.
Rumors are unfounded
Neither Li Qiang nor Cai Qi are credible successors to Xi Jinping.
Power dynamics in Chinese politics
Xi Jinping relies heavily on two lieutenants to sustain his rule through elite politics.
Zhou Enlai’s political insight
Zhou Enlai advised that understanding central politics requires navigating relationships among key figures.
Historical comparison
Mao Zedong, Lin Biao, and Jiang Qing formed a triangle during the Cultural Revolution.
Xi’s current power structure
Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, and Cai Qi form a triangle where Xi holds supreme authority.
Li Qiang’s role
Li Qiang serves as premier of the State Council and ranks second in the party hierarchy.
Cai Qi’s role
Cai Qi oversees the Secretariat and General Office, ranking fifth in the party hierarchy.
Party vs. government priorities
The party takes precedence over the government in Xi’s hierarchy of priorities.
Cai Qi’s party responsibilities
Cai Qi coordinates party affairs but cannot monopolize power within the party apparatus.
Li Qiang’s economic role
Li Qiang manages economic affairs amid China’s real estate crisis and weak domestic demand.
Retirement timelines
Li Qiang will pass 68 in three months, while Cai Qi will be four years over the retirement threshold.
Next party congress
Next year’s 21st Party Congress will test whether the power balance between Li and Cai endures.
Future of the power structure
Xi Jinping may deepen reliance on Li Qiang to manage complex economic challenges.
The bottom line
Xi Jinping depends on Li Qiang and Cai Qi to manage party and government affairs without direct conflict.
