October shines in midterm years

Since 1950, October has been the best-performing month in U.S. midterm election years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time.

“October has been the best-performing month of the year in U.S. midterm years, averaging a 3% gain for the S&P 500 and posting positive returns 73.7% of the time.”

November follows closely behind

November ranks second in midterm years, averaging a 2.7% gain with positive returns 78.9% of the time, while September has averaged a 0.8% decline.

UBS research confirms the pattern

UBS Global Research examined 19 midterm elections since 1950 and found S&P 500 returns averaged about 6% from September through year-end in midterm years, compared with about 4% in other years.

Volatility peaks then normalizes

UBS strategist Maxwell Grinacoff noted that markets have been choppy from August-end until early October with a median decline of minus 1.4%, before rallying through year-end. Volatility normalizes after elections.

“The market has typically been choppy from August-end until early October, with a median decline of -1.4%, before the market starts to rally through year-end and into the next year.”

JPMorgan sees Q4 strength

J.P. Morgan Asset Management finds the S&P 500 has historically been slightly negative in the first three quarters of midterm years, before averaging a 6.6% gain in the fourth quarter.

2026's strong start complicates outlook

The S&P 500 was up approximately 13% year to date as of September 18, raising questions about whether the historical Q4 pattern holds after such strong gains, or if valuations and economic fundamentals will alter it.