Millions face Tuesday with anxiety

Americans are looking to Tuesday's midterm elections with heightened anticipation or anxiety, or both. Political confidence and sense of security will be tested in days and weeks ahead.

Polling shows winter coming for MAGA

Polling suggests the midterm electoral pendulum will swing back against the White House incumbent, as it has in every midterm over the last one hundred years with very few exceptions.

Republicans face losses in red states

Polls point to significant losses for Republicans in swing states and even in some red states Trump won all three times, often by double-digit margins. Expected losses would be worst in blue states Trump lost.

Trump makes final stand in Iowa and Kansas

Trump spent the last weekend of the campaign visiting Iowa and Kansas for the Senate, while doing remote tele-rallies in nineteen other states.

House majority expected to flip

Most observers now predict Trump's party will lose its slim majority in the House. The Senate is too close to call, though the GOP could hold the majority using Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote.

Trump made the election about himself

Presidents routinely campaign for their party's midterm candidates, but Trump has worked hard to make the election about himself. He said, Pretend I'm on the ballot, personalizing the race to another level.

“Pretend I'm on the ballot”

Trump cast himself as historic driver

In his first term Trump acted as an executive in a system of shared powers.

No Kings mantra resonates with voters

While Trump's interpretation of his role played well with his base, the larger electorate is different. Anti-Trump rallies have taken up the simple anti-autocrat mantra of No Kings.

“No Kings”

Trump's promises on Ukraine and Middle East unfulfilled

Critics and Democrats have focused on promises Trump made but has not delivered. Peace in Ukraine on Day one and a new era for Israel and the Palestinians have not materialised so far.

Inflation remains elevated, prices surge

Trump said he would make things cheaper and tame inflation. But inflation remains elevated and the public sees the price of gas leading a sustained surge in everyday costs.

Trump's approval falls to thirty-seven percent

Trump's recent approval numbers have fallen from a clear majority of fifty-two percent in average of polls early in two thousand twenty-five to an average of thirty-seven percent now, breaking below the forty percent threshold.

Democrats' left-wing divisions run deep

If Democrats win, their majority will be modest by historic standards. Deep divisions persist between majoritarian consensus builders and the party's firebrands on the left, including candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America.

Ruy Teixeira questions Democrats' priorities

Political demographer Ruy Teixeira published eleven questions Democrats must confront if they regain congressional power.

Trump repeatedly questions election integrity

As far back as his first nomination in two thousand sixteen, Trump told crowds that if he lost it would be because the process was fraudulent.

Democracy itself faces the real test

For generations Americans have shown confidence in their electoral systems, but that too has become a target. Faith in the democratic system is required if the system is going to work and survive.

Greater stress may come after election night

There will be tension on election night this week, as there always is. But the greater stress may come in the days and weeks ahead as faith in the system itself faces its deepest test.