From NPR · · 4m
School enrollment plummets as deportations accelerate
Public schools already facing decades of declining birth rates now lose hundreds of thousands more students as ICE raids intensify across the country.
In brief
Public schools already facing decades of declining birth rates now lose hundreds of thousands more students as ICE raids intensify across the country. U.S. public schools face unprecedented enrollment collapse from low birth rates worsened by Trump-era deportations, forcing districts to close campuses and cut billions…
Decades of decline before the raids
Birth rates in Los Angeles County have been falling for decades, causing public school enrollment to collapse.
A national trend accelerates
The population of children under age eighteen began to fall nationwide after two thousand ten, dropping by roughly two point one million kids through twenty twenty-five, according to U.S. Census data.
Trump administration escalates deportations
The Trump administration began detaining and expelling large numbers of foreign residents last year.A study by the Migration Policy Institute found as many as one point nine million people left the U.S.
ICE restrictions near schools removed
Federal officials weakened restrictions that prevented ICE agents from operating near public schools. Kelly Gonez, a board member in the LA Unified School District, said many families immediately went into hiding after the change.
Enrollment drops double predictions
Gonez said the district was predicting a two percent drop in enrollment but it was double that.
“We were predicting a 2% drop in enrollment. It was double that.”
National enrollment peaked in 2019
According to the U.S. Department of Education, the number of kids in public schools nationwide peaked in twenty nineteen and fell by roughly one point five million students as of the twenty twenty-four school year.
Projections show steeper declines ahead
Federal researchers project enrollment will decline by at least another two million students by twenty thirty. That would mean a seven percent national decline in roughly a decade.
Forty states already seeing declines
A report published in June by Bellwether and WestEd warned that public schools have entered an era of sustained enrollment declines which are already reshaping districts in forty states.
Central Valley absences spike after raids
When Thomas Dee, an economist at Stanford University, studied public schools in communities hit by ICE raids in California's Central Valley in twenty twenty-five, he found student daily absences spiked more than twenty percent.
Texas loses seventy-six thousand students
Texas saw the number of kids in classrooms plunge statewide last year by more than seventy-six thousand students.
Florida loses thirty thousand in one year
Florida, home to a large community of Haitian refugees stripped of temporary protected status by the Trump administration in July, saw a big drop in enrollment this year.
Santee High loses two hundred students
Guadalupe Cardona, a teacher at Santee Education Complex in South Los Angeles, said her school had over two hundred students that didn't show up on the first day of school.
“In my school alone, we had over 200 students that didn't show up on the first day of school.”
Four point six million citizens at risk
According to Brookings Institution estimates, as many as four point six million school-age kids including many U.S. citizens live in homes with family members vulnerable to deportation.
White House celebrates fewer students
White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said deportations make American classrooms less crowded. The administration celebrated that the total foreign-born population declined two point nine million from January twenty twenty-five to July twenty twenty-six.
“make American classrooms less crowded”
California projects losing seven hundred ten thousand
A study released in August by California state officials predicted public schools in California alone could lose another seven hundred ten thousand students over the next decade if current trends in fertility and migration hold.
LAUSD announces school closure process
With LAUSD now facing a second school year in a row with four percent enrollment declines, the district announced a citywide effort in September aimed at identifying buildings and campuses that will close.
Board member expects deep cuts ahead
Kelly Gonez, the school board member, told NPR she expects cuts to be deep and painful.
“When your district is roughly half the size of student population it was 20 years ago, it's hard to find a sustainable path to keep campuses open.”
The essence
U.S. public schools face unprecedented enrollment collapse from low birth rates worsened by Trump-era deportations, forcing districts to close campuses and cut billions in funding.
