Early results from three states

Indiana and Kentucky will report results in the six pm ET hour.Florida, mostly on Eastern time, will show House races by seven pm ET.

Watch four House races for turnout signs

Indiana's fifth Congressional District, Kentucky's sixth, and Florida's twenty-second and twenty-seventh will signal Republican turnout and Latino voting.If Indiana's fifth and Kentucky's sixth tip Democratic, it suggests low Republican turnout and a bigger Democratic wave.

The forty-six percent threshold with independents

Republicans have done well when they win at least forty-six percent of independents. When they haven't reached that mark, they've lost. Independents are a key swing group but vote at lower rates in midterms.

Michigan Senate race hinges on Black voters

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed needs strong Black voter turnout in Wayne County around Detroit to win. Democrats have needed sixty-eight percent or more in Wayne County to win Michigan unless they overperform in the suburbs.

Young voters drop off sharply in midterms

Voters eighteen to twenty-nine cast ballots at forty-three percent in presidential races since nineteen ninety-two but only twenty-one percent in midterms. When Democrats win this group by more than twenty points, they have done well.

Texas governor and attorney general gap matters

Watch the vote difference between Republican Gov.Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton.In two thousand eighteen, Cruz won about four hundred thousand fewer votes than Abbott but still won by more than two hundred thousand votes.

Texas Democrat needs Latino gains in South Texas

Democrat James Talarico must improve on Beto O'Rourke's two thousand eighteen performance with Latino voters.O'Rourke won sixty-four percent of Latinos who were twenty-six percent of the electorate.

Watch Latino performance in key Texas counties

Talarico needs strong Latino support in Cameron, Hidalgo, Webb and Nueces counties. O'Rourke won sixty-three percent in Cameron, sixty-nine percent in Hidalgo, seventy-one percent in Webb and fifty-one percent in Nueces.

Democratic share of electorate has fallen

The percentage of voters identifying as Democrats hit a low of thirty-one percent in two thousand twenty-four, down from thirty-nine percent in two thousand eight.

Opposition to Trump could unify Democrats

Fifty-three percent of likely voters in the latest NPR poll strongly disapproved of Trump's job performance. That opposition is sky high and very likely to be a unifying force for the left in this election.

“the enemy of my enemy is my friend”

Michigan races will test Democratic unity

The Michigan Senate race and Michigan's seventh Congressional District both feature progressive Democratic candidates trying to win in purple places.