From NPR · · 3m
Trump faces record disapproval as midterms loom
President Trump's failure to lower prices and unpopular decisions on Iran and tariffs have left him with record-low approval ratings heading into the 2026 midterms, where history suggests his party will lose seats.
In brief
President Trump's failure to lower prices and unpopular decisions on Iran and tariffs have left him with record-low approval ratings heading into the 2026 midterms, where history suggests his party will lose seats. President Trump faces record-low approval ratings as voters blame him for rising prices despite his 2024…
Trump's price mandate unfulfilled
President Trump was elected in 2024 largely to bring down prices. Instead, prices have continued rising since he took office, and he faces record-low approval ratings.
War and tariffs drove price increases
Trump's war with Iran and his tariffs were direct choices that led to increased prices on goods and energy, contributing to voter frustration over the economy.
Economy splits between rich and poor
The wealthy are doing well from rising stock portfolios dominated by AI companies, while regular Americans struggle with inflation outpacing wages, a middling labor market, and higher interest rates.
Most voters say finances worsened
An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found forty-four percent said their finances stayed the same, thirty-eight percent said their situations worsened, and only fifteen percent said things improved.
Immigration and spending cuts anger voters
Disapproval of the administration's hard-line immigration enforcement, cuts to Medicaid and health care programs, and slashing of regulations and government workforce are angering swing voters and firing up Democrats.
History favors Democrats in midterms
Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained House seats in a midterm. On average, the president's party loses twenty-six seats, or thirty-five when approval is below fifty percent.
Democrats overperformed in recent elections
Democrats have consistently overperformed in special elections and cleaned up in the twenty twenty-five off-year elections. The unpopular Iran war and skyrocketing gas prices have worsened the landscape for Republicans.
Democrats favored for House control
Democrats are favored to win control of the House and are in striking distance of winning the Senate, something seen as a longshot at the beginning of this cycle.
Redistricting limits Democratic gains
There are about thirty fewer competitive districts this year than in twenty eighteen. Mid-decade redistricting gave Republicans an estimated eight-seat advantage, even if marginally.
Democratic base restive but engaged
While Democrats are not viewed positively, self-identified democratic socialists are very engaged and hotly disapprove of Trump. Forty-four percent of voters said their vote was against Trump, twenty-one percent for him.
Republican turnout will be decisive
Trump has been deployed to red states to push his base to vote. Without big GOP turnout, a one or two-seat Democratic Senate pickup could quickly become six or seven.
Trump laying groundwork for fraud claims
Trump is already laying groundwork for claims of rigged elections. After the twenty twenty election, his false claims of fraud led to the January sixth siege at the Capitol.
Close races could delay results for weeks
Some races may not be called on election night. Given tight margins, particularly in the Senate, party control might not be known for days or weeks, leaving room for chaos and misinformation.
The essence
President Trump faces record-low approval ratings as voters blame him for rising prices despite his 2024 mandate to bring them down, positioning Democrats to gain House seats and compete for Senate control in the midterms.
