From NZ Herald · · 3m
Luxon Begins Final Push Near Ardern's Exit
National leader Christopher Luxon starts election campaign near site of Jacinda Ardern's resignation announcement.
In brief
National leader Christopher Luxon starts election campaign near site of Jacinda Ardern's resignation announcement. Christopher Luxon begins final election push near Napier where Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation. Originally reported by NZ Herald.
Luxon's Campaign Start
National leader Christopher Luxon began the penultimate day of the election campaign a few metres from the site of one of the defining moments of the 2023 election.
Half-Shorn Sheep Symbol
He was opposite Napier’s glorious Soundshell, shaving the head of Sam, a member of the Young Nats, National’s youth wing.
Campaign Photo-Op Pattern
The photo-op was the second in a pattern of stops Luxon’s campaign bus has made on its journey from Wellington to Auckland in the campaign’s final days.
Half-Completed Job
Each day, Luxon has been presented with something half-done and asked to 'finish the job'.
Sheep and Sam
On Wednesday, it was a half-shorn sheep; on Thursday, it was Sam, whose head had been half-shaved.
Ardern's Resignation Site
Perhaps the most powerful symbol of the photo-op wasn’t Sam’s half-shorn head, but the fact Luxon was down the road from the auditorium where, nearly four years ago, Dame Jacinda Ardern announced she’d be stepping…
Luxon's Jubilation
By chance, Luxon was in Napier with his caucus that day too. There was jubilation as they watched Ardern announce her resignation on their phones.
Election Outcome Unclear
They knew then that the election, whose date Ardern announced in the same speech, had a good chance of going their way.
Current Polling Uncertainty
But whatever that new thing was never quite took hold and so today, as the parties make their closing arguments to the public, the election outcome looks far less clear than it did that day…
Labour's Path to Power
Labour has a clearer and more obvious path to power and, on current polling, might be slightly more likely to come out on top.
Opportunity's Polling
Opportunity, whose polling has been about 6% in these last polls, seems more likely than not to enter Parliament, which is a prerequisite for any plausible scenario in which Labour wins.
Te Pāti Māori's Position
Te Pāti Māori looks likely to hold on to enough of its seats to trigger a decent three or four-seat overhang on the left.
National's Overhang Path
National’s other path involves it triggering an overhang by winning more seats through candidate votes than its party vote would entitle it to.
Overhang Uncertainty
It seems likely that National will achieve an overhang, but no one knows how big it will be, and it may need to be quite big to make a difference.
Campaign Challenges
National started the voting period on a high, fresh from the resignation of Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni after she’d been pictured campaigning with gangs. But it went swiftly downhill from there.
National's Campaign Strategy
National spent the last weekend of the campaign in an untidy fight with split-vote campaigners Don Brash and Harry Mowbray, as well as New Zealand First and Act, which had given their approval to the…
The bottom line
Christopher Luxon begins final election push near Napier where Jacinda Ardern announced her resignation.
