From NZ Herald · · 3m
New Zealand's National Security Challenges for New Government
New Zealand's next government faces immediate security questions as US ties deepen and China's influence grows.
In brief
New Zealand's next government faces immediate security questions as US ties deepen and China's influence grows. New Zealand must balance US security commitments with growing Chinese influence in the Pacific. Originally reported by NZ Herald.
New Zealand's security shift
The upcoming election result won't hinge on foreign policy but national security questions will immediately confront the new government.
Post-Cold War security decline
Since the Cold War ended, security has been sacrificed for economic efficiency, a trend seen globally including in the US and Europe.
US as strategic partner
The US remains New Zealand's most powerful ally despite security guarantees suspended since 1986, providing critical intelligence and deterrence.
China's growing influence
China buys about a quarter of New Zealand's exports but engages in territorial disputes and builds military infrastructure in the Pacific.
New Zealand's security concerns
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters warns of increased Chinese engagement in Pacific security sectors and beachhead activities.
Trilateral security project
New Zealand, US, and Japan launched a $60 million project to upgrade the Penrhyn port in the Cook Islands.
Defence spending reality
New Zealand spent just 1.1% of GDP on defence in 2025, ranking 31st among OECD countries.
Japan's security role
Japan has emerged as a parallel security guarantor in the Pacific with plans to spend 2% of GDP on defence two years early.
Anzac frigate replacement
New Zealand's two ageing Anzac frigates reach the end of their lives in the mid-2030s with replacement decisions due by end of 2027.
AI in defence
New Zealand's strategic problem includes too much ocean, too few platforms, too few analysts and too many data streams requiring AI integration.
Labour's frigate stance
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has defended Five Eyes but floated the idea of not replacing Anzac frigates.
Strategic balance needed
New Zealand must assume an engaged America while building Australian and Japanese security pillars to share regional burdens.
Pacific security challenges
China's navy and coastguard press contested claims against the Philippines and Vietnam while building military infrastructure in the South Pacific.
US security commitment
The US provides critical intelligence, maritime domain awareness, high-end training and deterrence against serious threats to New Zealand.
Five Eyes membership
New Zealand is the only Five Eyes member without a warship transfer agreement with another country.
Next steps for security
New Zealand's leaders must not swerve security obligations as partners blink red as the world order frays.
What to remember
New Zealand must balance US security commitments with growing Chinese influence in the Pacific.
