From Newsweek · · 2m
Bolsonaro Lead Nears Tie as Trump Stays Quiet
Bolsonaro and Lula's Brazil election lead shrinks to a statistical tie as Trump avoids endorsing either candidate.
In brief
Bolsonaro and Lula's Brazil election lead shrinks to a statistical tie as Trump avoids endorsing either candidate. Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil's first round vote, with Trump's silence on the race benefiting Bolsonaro's campaign. Originally reported by Newsweek.
Brazilian Election Results
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil.
Datafolha Poll Shows Tie
A Datafolha poll released Thursday showed the two candidates tied at 50 percent of valid votes, down from a 52-48 Bolsonaro advantage two weeks earlier.
Bolsonaro's First Round Vote
Bolsonaro finished first in the October 4 first round with 47.03 percent to Lula's 45.16 percent.
Trump's Strategic Silence
Trump has stayed quiet on the race despite weighing in heavily on other recent elections in Latin America.
Trump's Past Involvement
Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump in the Oval Office in May, then Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump's Strategic Choice
Trump's relative silence on this race probably pleases the Bolsonaro campaign, making it harder for Lula to use foreign intervention as a political advantage.
Analyst Perspective
Michael Shifter, a senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said Trump's support would have been an electoral gift to Lula.
Bolsonaro's Campaign Strategy
Bolsonaro urged Washington to designate Brazil's two largest criminal organizations as terrorist groups, and the administration announced days later that it would.
U.S. Pressure on Brazil
The Trump administration imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods in 2025, citing the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro.
Bolsonaro's Age Advantage
Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, may benefit from his energy and passion in the runoff debate.
Meta's Role in Campaign
Lula's campaign accused Meta of tilting its platforms toward Bolsonaro after Brazilian news outlets found Meta AI generated campaign images of Bolsonaro.
Donroe Doctrine Impact
A Bolsonaro victory would give Trump an aligned government in Latin America's largest country, the biggest prize yet for the 'Donroe Doctrine'.
Election Outcome Risks
A narrow Lula victory could trigger false fraud claims from Bolsonaro, who has a history of election denialism.
Next Steps
Bolsonaro and Lula will face a runoff vote on Sunday, with the outcome likely to shape U.S.-Brazil relations for years.
Here's the gist
Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil's first round vote, with Trump's silence on the race benefiting Bolsonaro's campaign.
