From PolitiFact · · 3m
Hochul's $300 million Bills claim doubted by economists
Gov. Hochul justified public subsidies for the Bills' new stadium using an economic impact figure that academic researchers say contradicts decades of sports economics research.
In brief
Gov. Hochul justified public subsidies for the Bills' new stadium using an economic impact figure that academic researchers say contradicts decades of sports economics research. Gov. Hochul cited a three hundred fifty point two million dollar annual economic impact from the Bills to justify six hundred million dollars…
Hochul's stadium justification
Gov. Kathy Hochul has said the Buffalo Bills' new Highmark Stadium will generate three hundred million dollars in annual economic impact for the region, justifying public investment in the project.
Public funding for the stadium
New York State provided six hundred million dollars in public funds toward construction of the two point two billion dollar Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, which opened in 2026.
Hochul's legislative push
Hochul told the Democrat and Chronicle that she pushed the stadium funds through the state Legislature in 2021, where the idea was not popular among lawmakers unfamiliar with Buffalo.
“I showed the economics that, in fact, the Buffalo Bills in the region is about $300 million a year.”
The commissioned analysis
Hochul's office provided a 2021 economic analysis prepared by CAA ICON for Pegula Sports and Entertainment, which calculated the Bills' annual economic impact on Erie County at three hundred fifty point two million dollars.
How the analysis worked
The analysis surveyed fans who attended a 2019 game about their spending, then used multipliers to estimate direct, indirect and induced economic impacts across Buffalo, Erie County and New York State.
Academic consensus contradicts claim
Fifty years of peer-reviewed economic research consistently finds that stadiums have little to no economic impact on host communities, according to J. C. Bradbury, professor of economics at Kennesaw State University.
“The historical evidence suggests that stadiums are not economic engines.”
Commissioned studies unreliable
Bradbury said he has never seen a commissioned study fail to find a positive impact, calling such analyses junk science. Peer-reviewed studies undergo anonymous review before publication.
“I've never seen a commissioned study not find a positive impact. It's junk science.”
Economists reject the claim
Brad R. Humphreys, co-author of a 2022 paper summarizing over thirty years of research, told PolitiFact that Hochul's claim is not credible and uses the wrong methodology to answer the question.
“It's garbage in-garbage out and uses the wrong tool to answer this question.”
Spending displacement problem
Critics argue the analysis assumes Bills-related spending would vanish from the local economy if the team did not exist, but most customers are local residents who would spend money elsewhere in Western New York.
Budget commission skepticism
The Citizens Budget Commission, which tracks state finances, wrote in 2022 that past research most often finds professional sports franchises do not have significant, consistent, positive economic impacts.
Analysis questioned but unverified
The CAA ICON analysis came with caveats stating it cannot be used in marketing or financing documents and no independent verification or audit was performed. The report's author did not respond to requests for comment.
The headline
Gov. Hochul cited a three hundred fifty point two million dollar annual economic impact from the Bills to justify six hundred million dollars in public funding for their stadium, but economists say commissioned analyses like this one consistently overstate sports teams' local economic effects.
