From Premium Times Nigeria · Abdulkareem Mojeed · · 2m
Renaissance Capital Raises Dangote Refinery Valuation
Renaissance Capital boosts Dangote Refinery share price by 33.4% to ₦700 after strong earnings.
In brief
Renaissance Capital boosts Dangote Refinery share price by 33.4% to ₦700 after strong earnings. Renaissance Capital raised Dangote Refinery valuation by 33.4% to ₦700 per share following strong first nine months 2026 performance. Originally reported by Premium Times Nigeria.
Renaissance Capital Update
Renaissance Capital Africa raised Dangote Petroleum Refinery valuation by 33.4% to ₦700.41 per share from ₦525 IPO price.
Strong Earnings Performance
Refinery exceeded expectations with revenue, EBITDA and net profit growth in first nine months of 2026.
Financial Highlights
Revenue grew 144% to $9.2 billion, EBITDA increased nine-fold to $5.5 billion, operating cash flow rose ten-fold to $3.68 billion.
Debt to Cash Shift
![President Donald Trump in Congress [PHOTO CREDIT: The Strategist]](https://i0.wp.com/media.premiumtimesng.com/wp-content/files/2026/10/54368057050_d918c14a1d_k.jpg?w=2048&ssl=1)
Net debt reduced from $1.73 billion in September 2025 to net cash position of $651 million in first nine months of 2026.
Analyst Concerns
Some analysts question if ₦525 share price is too high given expansion plans and margin sustainability.
Razaq Fatai's Warning
Razaq Fatai warns higher valuation risks false hope for retail investors and may overstate future cash flows.
Capacity Expansion Plan
Refinery plans to double capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2029, estimated at $14 billion cost.
Geopolitical Margin Impact
US-Iran conflict created unusually high refining margins but may not be sustainable long-term.
Margin Projections
Renaissance Capital expects gross refining margins to rise to $27.50 per barrel in 2026 from $24 per barrel.
Investor Advice
Investors should test valuation against scenarios: normal margins, expansion delays, weaker naira.
Competing Valuations
GTI Capital reports fair value at ₦493 per share, describing current offer price as fully valued.
DCF Valuation Concerns
Razaq Fatai notes delays in expansion could erode value and impact valuation accuracy.
Refinery Performance
Refinery recorded $4.7 billion net profit in first nine months of 2026 vs $117.2 million loss in same period of 2025.
Investor Caution
Razaq Fatai advises against relying on headline fair-value estimates based on optimistic assumptions.
What Happens Next
Investors should compare Renaissance Capital with independent valuations before making decisions.
The key point
Renaissance Capital raised Dangote Refinery valuation by 33.4% to ₦700 per share following strong first nine months 2026 performance.
