Billions ride on autumn colors

Millions of Americans travel to see fall foliage each year. A two thousand twenty-five estimate from the U.S. National Park Service showed that fall tourists spend over eight billion dollars in the New England region annually.

Predicting peak colors is getting harder

Experts say that predicting peak fall foliage has never been an easy task, and climate change is only complicating the matter. William Keeton, a professor of forest ecology and forestry at the University of Vermont, says climate change just scrambles the deck.

“Climate change, as with everything, just scrambles the deck.”

New England looks promising for two thousand twenty-six

New England and upstate New York were among the most promising areas in AccuWeather's August forecast, with wet weather in late spring and early summer and the prospect of drier conditions and cooler nights heading into autumn.

Other regions expected to see duller colors

AccuWeather forecast less vivid colors in parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, citing cloud cover, rain, and a lack of clear, cool nights. Colorado and the Carolinas could also see duller colors and brittle leaves due to drought conditions.

Warming delays and stresses trees

The years two thousand fifteen through two thousand twenty-five have been the warmest on record globally. Warmer nighttime temperatures that extend later into the fall can delay the onset of fall foliage. Extreme droughts can reduce the chemical compounds that produce fall color and stress trees into dropping leaves sooner.

“There is some evidence that warming temperatures, especially warmer nighttime temperatures that extend later into the fall, can delay the onset of fall foliage.”

Climate change may stretch the season

Warmer fall temperatures typically lead to a shorter peak fall foliage season. However, some research finds that climate change could lead to a longer season in some instances, as different species of trees respond at different times to changing conditions.

Predicting peak foliage is now a gamble

Chris Martine, a professor of biology at Bucknell University and president of the Botanical Society of America, says instead of lots of different species flipping the switch around the same time, there will be an extended period. Predicting when peak foliage might be is becoming increasingly difficult.

“You're just gonna have to bet on a weekend and hope for the best.”