From The Rio Times · Rafael Silva Santos · · 1m 30s
Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 50.8%, Lula 49.2%
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error.
In brief
Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error. Brazil's runoff election poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Brazil Election Poll Results
Instituto França released a runoff poll showing Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.8% valid votes and Lula 49.2%.
Valid Vote Split
The 1.6-point gap sits inside the 1.8-point margin of error, making it a technical tie.
Raw Vote Totals
Flávio Bolsonaro has 40.95% and Lula 39.65% in raw totals, with 10.56% blank or null votes.
Poll Methodology
Instituto França interviewed 3,000 voters nationwide from 16 to 20 October at 95% confidence level.
Margin of Error
The poll has a 1.8-point margin of error at 95% confidence level, with a 1.6-point gap inside it.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.2% chance of winning the runoff, with Lula at 21.5%.
Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, five days after the poll.
Technical Tie Meaning
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size.
Why This Matters
The result affects Brazilian stocks, the real, and trade with Washington for the next four years.
What's Next
The winner will take office as president for a four-year term starting 25 October.
The short version
Brazil's runoff election poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error.
