From The Rio Times · Contributing Reporter · · 1m 40s
Brazil Rate Decision Due Today, Hold Likely
Brazil's central bank expected to hold Selic rate at 13.75% Wednesday.
In brief
Brazil's central bank expected to hold Selic rate at 13.75% Wednesday. Brazil's central bank will hold its Selic rate at 13.75% Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as prediction markets show 88.8% chance of no change. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Rate Decision Expected
Brazil's central bank is expected to hold its Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% on Wednesday 4 November 2026.
Selic Rate History
The Copom has cut five times by 0.25 point since March, taking the rate down from 15%.
Election Impact
President Lula won re-election on 25 October with about 51.8% of valid votes, causing the Ibovespa to fall 13.88% the next day.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket showed 88.8% chance of no change and 11.0% for a quarter-point cut as of 1:12 a.m. ET on 4 November.
Betting Ban Status
The Supreme Court held a public hearing on 3 November for Provisional Measure 1.394, which bans fixed-odds betting.
Betting Ban Timeline
The National Congress's first 60-day review period for the betting ban ends on 23 November.
Market Impact
The Ibovespa eased 1.42% with 6 of 15 names advancing, while Mining lagged.
Betting Ban Losses
Flamengo's president estimated losses of up to R$430 million in 2027 (about US$78 million at R$5.49 per US$).
Next Steps
The Copom will publish its minutes on Tuesday 10 November after announcing the decision Wednesday.
Betting Ban Review
The first 60-day review period for the betting ban ends on 23 November, with a locked legislative agenda starting 9 November.
Market Breadth
The session read: 6 of 15 names advancing, with Consumer Disc. leading and Mining lagging.
The essence
Brazil's central bank will hold its Selic rate at 13.75% Wednesday, November 4, 2026, as prediction markets show 88.8% chance of no change.
