From The Rio Times · Richard Mann · · 1m 40s
Fed Hike Odds Jump After US Inflation
Prediction markets now show 47.5% chance of Fed rate hike in October after hot US inflation report.
In brief
Prediction markets now show 47.5% chance of Fed rate hike in October after hot US inflation report. Prediction markets indicate 47.5% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October following a sharp US inflation report. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Prediction Markets Update
Polymarket prices a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October at 47.5%, up 29 points in 24 hours from about 18%.
Inflation Report Trigger
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months with gasoline up 9.1% in the month.
Current Fed Rate
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 september after a unanimous 12–0 vote.
Next Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 27–28 october with the decision published on 28 october.
Market Reaction
Polymarket traded about us$4.2 million in the past 24 hours with total volume of us$38.1 million.
Kalshi Market Data
Kalshi prices a rate above 4.00% at about 50% with 4,400 contracts traded in 24 hours.
Why Odds Moved
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in september accounting for more than half of the monthly inflation increase.
Inflation Impact
Higher rates increase borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business credit.
Latin America & Africa Impact
Higher us rates make life harder for emerging markets by raising dollar debt costs and pulling investment.
Market Uncertainty
It is unknown whether the fed will treat one hot month as a trend with the next meeting in october.
What Next
The fed will publish its decision on 28 october with the next meeting on 27–28 october.
The main idea
Prediction markets indicate 47.5% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October following a sharp US inflation report.
