From 24/7 Wall St. · Sam Daodu · · 1m 40s
Alex Thorn Predicts Bitcoin Low Held After Four Bear Markets
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn says Bitcoin's $57,718 low held after four of last five bear markets, signaling potential for a steady climb.
In brief
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn says Bitcoin's $57,718 low held after four of last five bear markets, signaling potential for a steady climb. Bitcoin's $57,718 low is likely to hold as the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average occurred in four of the last five bear markets. Originally reported by 24/7…
Thorn's Signal
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's research head, noted Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, signaling a potential hold at $57,718.
“Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks.”
Four Historical Cases
In four of the last five bear markets, Bitcoin held its low after reclaiming the 50-week moving average, with the last hold reaching $126,198.
“Bitcoin held its low after reclaiming the 50-week moving average in four of the last five bear markets.”
The Exception
The 2021-2022 period saw Bitcoin cross above the moving average twice but made lower lows due to Luna, Three Arrows, and FTX collapses.
“Bitcoin crossed above the moving average twice but made lower lows due to Luna, Three Arrows, and FTX collapses.”
Current Price Context
Bitcoin is at $84,702, 11% below its January high and 33% below its October 2025 record of $126,198.
“Bitcoin is at 84,702 dollars, 11 percent below its January high and 33 percent below its October 2025 record.”
Buyer Behavior Shift
Today's market has larger but slower-moving buyers compared to past rallies, suggesting a steadier climb rather than a rapid surge.
“Today's market has larger but slower-moving buyers compared to past rallies.”
Key Test Ahead
The weekly close on September 27 will determine if Bitcoin holds above $78,786, signaling a potential move toward the January high of $94,820.
“The weekly close on September 27 will determine if Bitcoin holds above 78,786 dollars.”
Why It Matters
Thorn's signal indicates a solid floor at $57,718, but the speed of the price recovery remains uncertain.
“Thorn's signal indicates a solid floor at 57,718 dollars.”
Historical Comparison
This cycle resembles 2015 and 2018 bear markets, where Bitcoin held lows after reclaiming the moving average.
“This cycle resembles the 2015 and 2018 bear markets.”
The Risk
If Bitcoin closes below $78,786 on September 27, it could trigger a false signal similar to the 2022 downturn.
“If Bitcoin closes below 78,786 dollars on September 27, it could trigger a false signal.”
What it means
Bitcoin's $57,718 low is likely to hold as the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average occurred in four of the last five bear markets.
