From 24/7 Wall St. · Sam Daodu · · 1m
Bitcoin's September Surge Signals Q4 Hope
Bitcoin's 7.8% September gain hints at strong Q4 if ETFs hold steady
In brief
Bitcoin's 7.8% September gain hints at strong Q4 if ETFs hold steady Bitcoin's green September could lead to Q4 gains if it stays above $78,563 and spot ETFs keep buying Originally reported by 24/7 Wall St..
Bitcoin's September Surprise
Bitcoin rose 7.8% this month despite historical September losses.
“Bitcoin ended August at $78,563 and is trading at $84,702 as of September 21, 2026”
Why September Feels Different
The past five years saw Bitcoin drop in September, but 2023-2025 had gains.
“Bitcoin gained 3.9% in September 2023, 7.3% in September 2024, and 5.2% in September 2025”
Green September History
Four out of five green Septembers led to strong Q4 gains in 2015-2024.
“In years where Bitcoin closed higher in September, specifically 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, the subsequent fourth quarters also saw gains”
2025's Warning
A similar setup in 2025 led to a 23.1% Q4 drop after one bad day.
“The drop began on October 10, when a tariff threat from President Trump triggered about $19 billion in liquidations”
Q4's Key Test
Bitcoin must stay above $78,563 and spot ETFs must keep buying.
“For Q4 to mirror the strong growth seen in 2023 or 2024, consistent buying from these funds will need to occur throughout October”
The Price Threshold
Holding above $78,563 keeps momentum from July intact.
“If Bitcoin slips below this mark, a negative October trend could re-emerge”
What's Next for Bitcoin
A green September suggests Q4 gains if ETFs hold steady and price stays strong.
“If both conditions hold through October, the green September could signal the start of a strong quarter”
The 2025 Lesson
One bad day in October 2025 caused a 23.1% Q4 drop despite a green September.
“The drop began on October 10, when a tariff threat from President Trump triggered about $19 billion in liquidations”
The essence
Bitcoin's green September could lead to Q4 gains if it stays above $78,563 and spot ETFs keep buying
