From 24/7 Wall St. · Vandita Jadeja · · 1m 10s
Eli Lilly 10% Growth by 2030
How $1,000 invested in Eli Lilly at 10% annual growth becomes by 2030.
In brief
How $1,000 invested in Eli Lilly at 10% annual growth becomes by 2030. A $1,000 investment in Eli Lilly grows to $1,830.10 by 2031 at 10% annual growth. Originally reported by 24/7 Wall St..
Eli Lilly Revenue Growth
Eli Lilly reported 47.7% revenue growth year over year in Q2 2026.
“Eli Lilly just posted 47.7% revenue growth and its weight-loss drugs are reshaping global healthcare”
Starting Price for 2030 Projection
The model starts with a $1,208.74 share price as the base for 2030 calculations.
“In intraday trading the shares were at $1,267.90, up 4.89% on the session from $1,208.74”
10% Annual Growth Projection
A $1,000 investment grows to $1,830.10 by 2031 at 10% annual growth.
“In its base case, a $1,000 investment would increase to about $1,830.10 by 2031, a total return of 83.01%”
Bull, Base and Bear Scenarios
Bull case: $2,227.90 value for $1,000 by 2030. Base case: $1,830.10. Bear case: $1,205.
“Bull: $2,693, 122.79% return, $2,227.90 value. Base: $2,212.06, 83.01% return, $1,830.10 value. Bear: $1,456.52, 20.5% return, $1,205 value”
Weight-Loss Drug Performance
Mounjaro generated $9.94 billion in Q2, up 91%, with international sales rising 172% after China's National Reimbursement Drug List inclusion.
“Mounjaro brought in $9.94 billion in the second quarter, up 91%. International sales rose 172% after the drug was added to China’s National Reimbursement Drug List”
Earnings and Guidance
Q2 EPS of $8.38 exceeded estimates, with full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $87 billion.
“Q2 EPS of $8.38 exceeded the $6.58 estimate, giving Lilly 5 consecutive beats. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $85 billion to $87 billion, up from $82 billion to $85 billion”
Future Drug Pipeline
Lilly plans to file retatrutide in Q1 2027 and launch oral GLP-1 Foundayo in 2027 with over 40 phase three programs.
“Lilly plans to file retatrutide in quarter one, 2027. The oral GLP-1 Foundayo is set for a global launch in 2027, and the company has more than 40 active phase three programs”
Risks to 2030 Projection
Pricing pressures, competition from Novo Nordisk, and valuation at a trailing P/E of 40 could reduce 2030 returns.
“Pricing is the biggest pressure point. Realized prices fell 13% in Q2, while a 60% jump in volume did the heavy lifting. Acquired IPR&D charges of $2.78 billion in the quarter led management to lower the top of its EPS guidance to $36.50 from $37. Mounjaro and Zepbound make up the majority of revenue, so any slowdown in that franchise would hit the whole company.”
At a glance
A $1,000 investment in Eli Lilly grows to $1,830.10 by 2031 at 10% annual growth.
