From 24/7 Wall St. · Sam Daodu · · 3m
Fairshake's $193M bet on crypto's midterm future
A crypto super PAC is spending heavily to shape November's election, but one donor has far more to lose than the others.
In brief
A crypto super PAC is spending heavily to shape November's election, but one donor has far more to lose than the others. Ripple's $25 million donation to Fairshake is the largest from a company entirely dependent on a single token, XRP, making the midterm election outcome critical to its regulatory fate and business…
Fairshake's massive midterm war chest
The crypto industry's leading super PAC has $193 million to spend on the November 3 midterms. Three major donors contributed $74 million: Ripple and Coinbase each gave $25 million, and Andreessen Horowitz gave $24 million.
Money already deployed before voting
Fairshake didn't wait until November to spend. By June 30, it had distributed $51 million to affiliate PACs and spent $13.3 million on ads targeting primary races, including campaigns against Illinois Democrats who supported state crypto regulations.
Ripple's unique dependence on XRP
Unlike Coinbase and Andreessen Horowitz, which operate across hundreds of tokens and projects, Ripple's entire business depends on XRP. The token functions as the bridge asset for Ripple's payment solutions, making its regulatory status existential.
XRP faces SEC legal uncertainty
XRP is the only major token subject to an SEC lawsuit challenging whether it qualifies as a security. The CLARITY Act, which would determine whether the SEC or CFTC governs various tokens, has passed the House but awaits Senate approval.
XRP's price has collapsed
As of September 19, XRP trades at $1.41, down 23% year-to-date and 52.74% over 12 months. Bitcoin is down 7.18%, Ethereum down 11.7%, and Solana down 9.02%, making XRP's decline far steeper than other major tokens.
Why XRP has the most at stake
Three factors make XRP the token most affected by the election: Ripple's largest donation tied to a single token, XRP's unique SEC lawsuit, and its severe price decline requiring legislative support to recover.
November 3 could unlock new investment
If the election produces a Senate that passes the CLARITY Act, XRP could gain regulatory clarity and attract new investment flows, including U.S. spot ETF activity that would support its price recovery.
The $1.52 price test
A key post-election metric will be whether XRP closes above $1.52, its price on August 23. If it stays below $1.41, Ripple's $25 million investment may not deliver the intended impact on the token's value.
Fairshake's track record matters
In 2024, Fairshake spent $195.8 million and achieved a 91% success rate in general election races it entered. However, its Illinois primary campaigns against crypto-skeptical Democrats failed, showing money doesn't guarantee outcomes.
What matters most
Ripple's $25 million donation to Fairshake is the largest from a company entirely dependent on a single token, XRP, making the midterm election outcome critical to its regulatory fate and business survival.
