From 24/7 Wall St. · Omor Ibne Ehsan · · 2m
Market Indigestion Before 8150 Target
Analyst warns S&P 500 could dip to 7000 before hitting 8150 target.
In brief
Analyst warns S&P 500 could dip to 7000 before hitting 8150 target. RBC strategist Lori Calvasina predicts S&P 500 must drop to 7000 before reaching 8150 target amid Fed-cycle drawdowns. Originally reported by 24/7 Wall St..
RBC Strategist Names 8150 Target
RBC Capital Markets' head of U.S. equity strategy Lori Calvasina named a twelve-month S&P 500 target of 8150 on CNBC's Fast Money.
“8150”
Market Must Drop to 7000
Calvasina warned the market likely has to chew through a stretch of 'indigestion' that could take the index down toward 7000 before hitting 8150.
“indigestion”
SPY at 773.51
If you own SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) at its September 21 close of 773.51, that is a message about the shape of the ride.
“773.51”
Target Built from Models
The target is a twelve-month rolling figure built from five different models, ranging from 8043 at the low end to 8350 at the high end, with 8150 as the median.
“8150”
Valuation Model Shows 8043
Her valuation and earnings model takes consensus earnings for Q2 2027 on a trailing four-quarter basis and laps 10% off the top because sell-side forecasts historically run hot.
“10%”
Fed-Cycle Drawdown History
Calvasina anchors the pullback expectation in what past Fed hiking cycles have delivered in interim equity drawdowns, using that base rate to argue a garden-variety correction is the neutral expectation.
“garden-variety correction”
GDP Growth at 1.5%
Real GDP growth ran at 1.5% annualized in Q2 2026, below the 2% to 3% healthy trend range, after decelerating from 4.4% in Q3 2025.
“1.5%”
Core PCE at 130.658
Core PCE sits at 130.658 as of July 2026, the high of the trailing-year series, and the Fed just moved the target rate back up to 4.00% on September 21 from 3.75%.
“130.658”
SPY Exposure to Mega-Caps
SPY's exposure is heavily tilted to long-duration mega-cap growth: NVIDIA at 7.58%, Apple at 6.66%, and Microsoft at 4.91% lead the fund.
“7.58%”
The essence
RBC strategist Lori Calvasina predicts S&P 500 must drop to 7000 before reaching 8150 target amid Fed-cycle drawdowns.
