From 24/7 Wall St. · Sam Daodu · · 2m
XRP's Election Surge May Not Repeat at Midterms
XRP rocketed 580% after the 2024 election, but the conditions that powered that rally have shifted dramatically.
In brief
XRP rocketed 580% after the 2024 election, but the conditions that powered that rally have shifted dramatically. XRP's post-election surge relied on specific regulatory wins that won't repeat at midterms, and the coin's doubled supply means the same investment creates less price pressure now. Originally reported by…
XRP surged 580% after 2024 election
XRP climbed from $0.50 in November 2024 to $3.40 by mid-January 2025, then peaked at $3.65 in July 2025. Now it trades at $1.41 as midterms approach.
Regulatory wins drove most of the gains
Trump's victory and Gary Gensler's resignation announcement pushed XRP to $3.40, but the bigger catalyst came later: the SEC settlement with Ripple in July 2025 sent it to $3.65. Legal developments, not the election alone, powered the surge.
“A vote removes nothing from a docket.”
Midterms don't produce sweeping changes
Midterm elections historically don't redefine asset prices as dramatically as presidential elections do. The specific regulatory advancements that paired with the 2024 election won't reset for November's midterms.
XRP's volatility tells a cautionary tale
After the January 2025 peak, XRP fell 33% in February, recovered, then dropped 35% in Q4. It hit a 19-month low of $0.99 in August 2026, a 73% decline from the $3.65 high. The crash deserves equal weight with the surge.
XRP's supply has nearly doubled
XRP's circulating supply grew from roughly 34 billion coins in 2018 to about 63 billion today. Ripple releases up to a billion XRP monthly from escrow, meaning the same investment creates less upward price pressure than it did at 50 cents.
Structural improvements offer some hope
XRP secured commodity status, obtained spot ETFs, and launched RLUSD, a $1.5 billion stablecoin. These changes could attract the buying power needed for a rally, but they don't replace the regulatory catalyst that drove 2024's surge.
The $2 level is the real test
For the midterm-catalyst argument to hold, XRP must hold above $1.41, convincingly surpass $2, and then face $3.65 as resistance. XRP hasn't traded above $2 since January 2026. If it fails to clear $2 by November 3, the election comparison should be retired.
Broader market sentiment matters more
XRP's outlook depends more on overall crypto market sentiment than the election date itself. A replication of the 2024 surge appears unlikely because the specific setup of regulatory wins plus broad market resurgence won't repeat.
The bottom line
XRP's post-election surge relied on specific regulatory wins that won't repeat at midterms, and the coin's doubled supply means the same investment creates less price pressure now.
