From Brazil Reports · Rosalia Mazza · · 1m 10s
Nubank Beats Market After Lula Win
Nubank, the only US-listed Brazilian fintech, outperformed the stock market following Lula's election victory.
In brief
Nubank, the only US-listed Brazilian fintech, outperformed the stock market following Lula's election victory. Nubank's stock rose 16.95% while Brazil's market fell 13.88% after Lula won the election. Originally reported by Brazil Reports.
Lula's Election Victory
Lula won the October 25 second round with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Bolsonaro.
“Lula won the October 25 second round with 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL)”
Market Reaction
The Ibovespa fell 13.88%, triggering a circuit breaker, while the dollar rose 8.21% to R$5.403.
Fintech Performance
Nubank fell 16.95%, less than the Ibovespa's 20% dollar loss, due to operations in Mexico and Colombia.
Tax and Regulatory Impact
Lula raised taxes on fintechs to 12% from 9% in April 2025, with potential increases to 15% by 2028.
Central Bank Decisions
The central bank will decide on interest rates, with options traders expecting a hold at 13.75%.
Finance Minister Appointment
Lula has postponed naming a finance minister until after his foreign trip, with Dario Durigan still a possibility.
Market Consequences
Fintechs face tax hikes and stricter regulations, with potential impacts on their profitability.
“Lula’s win "stokes fears of further tax hikes and heavier regulation on Brazilian lenders"”
The bottom line
Nubank's stock rose 16.95% while Brazil's market fell 13.88% after Lula won the election.
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