From Foreign Policy · Julian E. Zelizer · · 1m 50s
The Biggest October Surprise of All
A 1962 Cuban missile crisis reshaped U.S. politics, becoming the biggest October surprise of all.
In brief
A 1962 Cuban missile crisis reshaped U.S. politics, becoming the biggest October surprise of all. Kennedy's Cuba crisis boosted Democratic approval and electoral gains by neutralizing Republican foreign policy issues. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
The October Surprise Definition
An October surprise refers to earth-shattering news that could dramatically influence the electorate during election cycles.
“The term refers to the emergence of earth-shattering news, whether generated by individuals associated with a campaign or by unfolding events, that could dramatically influence the electorate”
1980 Election Context
William Casey, Ronald Reagan's campaign manager, feared President Jimmy Carter might announce a breakthrough agreement to free 52 hostages in Iran before Election Day.
“William Casey, Ronald Reagan’s campaign manager, feared that President Jimmy Carter might announce a breakthrough agreement to free the 52 U.S. hostages being held in Iran before Election Day”
1962 Cuban Crisis
President Kennedy confronted Soviet Union over nuclear missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from U.S. shores.
“One of the most dramatic took place in october 1962, when president john f. kennedy confronted the soviet union over the placement of nuclear missiles in cuba”
Political Climate
Republicans attacked Kennedy as incapable of handling Soviet threats after Bay of Pigs invasion failure.
“Since kennedy’s inauguration in 1961, republicans had attacked the young president as incapable of dealing with the threats posed by the soviet union”
Cuba as Campaign Issue
Cuba became a major Republican campaign issue after Soviet military buildup on the island.
“Domestic tensions over cuba escalated in the summer of 1: reports of a soviet military buildup on the island hit u.s. politics”
Republican Criticism
Sens. Kenneth Keating and Homer Capehart criticized Kennedy for ignoring Soviet intervention in Cuba.
“Two republicans, sens. kenneth keating of new york and homer capehart of indiana, spent much of august criticizing kennedy for ignoring soviet intervention in cuba”
Kennedy's Response
Kennedy formed National Security Council committee to deliberate over options after U-2 photos revealed Soviet missile sites.
“After being briefed on the situation, kennedy formed the executive committee of the national security council to deliberate over the available options”
Crisis Announcement
Kennedy announced naval quarantine around Cuba and demand for Soviet missile removal.
“On oct. 22, kennedy addressed the nation on television to announce his middle ground solution. The u.s. navy would impose a quarantine around cuba to prevent additional military material from reaching the island. At the same time, he demanded that the soviet union remove the offensive weapons that had already been installed”
Public Reaction
Americans watched anxiously as Soviet ships approached the quarantine line.
“Americans watched anxiously as soviet ships approached the quarantine line”
Crisis Resolution
Soviets removed missiles from Cuba in exchange for U.S. pledge not to invade.
“Through an exchange of letters between kennedy and khrushchev, as well as secret talks between attorney general robert kennedy and soviet ambassador anatoly dobrynin, the two sides reached an agreement: the soviet union would remove the missiles from cuba, while the united states would pledge not to invade cuba”
Political Impact
Kennedy's approval rating increased by 13 points to 74 percent after crisis.
“Kennedy’s approval rating increased by 13 percentage points, reaching 74 percent”
Election Results
Democrats gained four Senate seats and avoided typical midterm losses.
“Democrats did well in the elections, avoiding the normal cycle of loss. They gained four seats in the senate and only lost a few seats in the house”
Long-Term Effects
The crisis neutralized Cuba as a Republican campaign issue for future elections.
“The first political result of the crisis was to neutralize cuba as a republican campaign issue, producing a classic 'rally-around-the-flag' effect”
Historical Significance
The 1962 crisis remains the biggest October surprise in U.S. political history.
“Although scholars debate the precise electoral impact of kennedy’s handling of the missile crisis, one thing is sure: the confrontation dominated the news and boosted kennedy’s standing in an area where he had been viewed as weak”
Modern Context
Today, hyperpolarization makes October surprises less likely to impact elections.
“Today, a consequential october surprise is even less likely to alter the course of an election. Hyperpolarization has rendered much of the electorate resistant to change”
Here's the gist
Kennedy's Cuba crisis boosted Democratic approval and electoral gains by neutralizing Republican foreign policy issues.
