From Foreign Policy · Deng Yuwen · · 2m
Who Will Succeed Xi Jinping?
Provincial reshuffles hint at Xi's successor: officials born 1964-1974.
In brief
Provincial reshuffles hint at Xi's successor: officials born 1964-1974. Xi Jinping's potential successor emerges from provincial reshuffles, with officials born 1964-1974 forming the likely pool for China's leadership by 2030. Originally reported by Foreign Policy.
Xi Jinping's leadership legacy
Xi Jinping bucked norms by refusing a two-term limit as president and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.
Provincial reshuffling begins
On Sept. 4, Zhu Zhongming, born in 1972, was promoted from deputy party secretary of Shanghai to acting mayor.
Rapid provincial changes
On Sept. 23, Anhui, Henan, and Fujian all got new party secretaries.
Key appointments
Li Lecheng and Zhou Zuyi, both born in 1965, took over Anhui and Henan, while Zhao Long, born in 1967, was promoted from governor of Fujian to provincial party secretary.
Generational shift
Provincial party secretary positions increasingly go to officials born between 1964 and 1969, while governorships open to officials born in the 1970s.
Rising officials
Zhejiang Gov. Liu Jie, Jiangsu Gov. Liu Xiaotao, and Guangxi Chairman Wei Tao were all born in 1970.
Central appointments
Emergency Management Minister Zhang Chengzhong; Cheng Fubo, chairman of China’s state-owned assets regulator; and Communist Youth League First Secretary A Dong were all born in 1970.
Political criteria
Xi’s standards for officials: political criteria first, must be loyal, clean, willing to shoulder responsibility, and possess professional competence.
Loyalty and legacy
A successor must be politically reliable but not denounce Xi’s legacy after taking power.
Political predictability
An official who obeys Xi today may not behave the same way after becoming general secretary.
Governing challenges
The successor must handle economic growth, technological competition with the US, Taiwan security, and a large party-state bureaucracy.
Successor pool
Officials born between 1967 and 1: 1975 appear to form the most realistic group to watch for leadership by 2030.
21st Central Committee
The 21st Central Committee will shift toward officials born between 1964 and 1974, with 1960s officials largely disappearing.
Final pool
Figures like Zhao, Beijing Mayor Yin Yong, and Shaanxi Gov. Zhao Gang, born between 1967 and 1969, will become key candidates for China’s leadership.
The big picture
Xi Jinping's potential successor emerges from provincial reshuffles, with officials born 1964-1974 forming the likely pool for China's leadership by 2030.
