From The Rio Times · Arkady Petrov · · 1m 30s
Brazil's Real Gains on Tight Runoff Polls
Brazil's real strengthens as runoff polls show close race between Bolsonaro and Lula.
In brief
Brazil's real strengthens as runoff polls show close race between Bolsonaro and Lula. Brazil's real rose against the dollar after two polls showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in the October 25 runoff election. Originally reported by The Rio Times.
Real Gains
The Brazilian real strengthened against the US dollar on Monday morning, with the dollar quoted at R$5.046 per dollar at 8:08 am ET, down 0.54%.
Runoff Polls
Two new polls from BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel showed a tight race for president on 25 October, with Flávio Bolsonaro still ahead in both.
Market Expectation
Economists in the central bank's weekly Focus survey trimmed their year-end dollar forecast to R$5.13 from R$5.15 and edged 2026 growth down to 1.83%.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 77.0% and a Lula win at 23.5%, with US$188 million traded on the election event.
What's Unknown
It is not known whether the real keeps its gain through the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
Why Real Gains Matter
A stronger real raises the dollar value of Brazilian assets, helping US holders of Brazil funds and shares like Petrobras, Vale, Itaú and Nu Holdings.
Dollar Rate Today
RT data showed R$5.0485 per US dollar at 8:43 am ET on Monday, 19 October 2:000.
Election Timeline
The runoff election between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula takes place on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
Economists' Forecast
The central bank's Focus survey expects 2026 inflation of 5.22% and a Selic rate of 13.25%.
The essence
Brazil's real rose against the dollar after two polls showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in the October 25 runoff election.
