From WIRED · Brian Kahn · · 1m 40s
Climate change abolishes ice
New research shows the world's ice, snow and frozen soil have slipped outside the safe conditions that enabled human civilization to flourish.
In brief
New research shows the world's ice, snow and frozen soil have slipped outside the safe conditions that enabled human civilization to flourish. Research published in Science shows fossil fuel burning has pushed ice, snow and permafrost outside safe operating conditions for the first time in twelve thousand years…
Twelve thousand years of stability ending
Research published in Science on Thursday shows fossil fuel burning is pushing the climate outside the envelope of the past twelve thousand years, when ice, frozen soil and snow remained stable.
“The climate of the past 12,000 or so years has been remarkably steady.”
Scientists map the safe operating space
The team analyzed changes to polar sea and land ice, mountain glaciers, permafrost and snow cover over the past twelve millennia to identify boundaries that, if crossed, would upend stability.
Arctic and Antarctic ice have crossed the line
Results show an accelerating and partly irreversible loss of cryospheric integrity. Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have both fallen outside the safe operating threshold, as have snow cover and permafrost.
“accelerating and partly irreversible loss of cryospheric integrity”
Distant ice threatens the entire globe
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has enough ice to raise sea levels by eleven feet. Permafrost holds trillions of tons of carbon dioxide that could accelerate warming if released.
Crossing dangerous tipping points
Dipping outside the safe operating space means the odds of crossing dangerous tipping points are rising. As temperatures approach one point five degrees Celsius, the world risks triggering Earth system tipping points.
“As we scratch 1.5 [degrees Celsius] and go above it, we are just really gambling with potentially triggering some of these Earth system tipping points”
Emissions cuts and radical backup plans
Cutting emissions is the most straightforward way to protect ice. Scientists have also explored geoengineering like glacier blankets, pumping cold sea water and barriers, though these are costly with no guarantee of success.
The short version
Research published in Science shows fossil fuel burning has pushed ice, snow and permafrost outside safe operating conditions for the first time in twelve thousand years.
