From 24/7 Wall St. · Chris Lange · · 50s
Midterm Elections and Market Trends
History shows markets rise after midterms but with sharp drops.
In brief
History shows markets rise after midterms but with sharp drops. SPY gained 1.16% after 2026 midterm but faces potential 8% drop by year-end. Originally reported by 24/7 Wall St..
Midterm Elections Over
SPY rose 1.16% to $763.08 before Wednesday's open.
Six Midterm Cycles
SPY gained in five of six November closes after midterms.
2022 and 2002 Cycles
Both saw SPY rise over 5% in November after severe bear markets.
2010 Exception
SPY closed flat in November 2010 after midterm vote.
Year-End Gains
Dow finished higher in all six cycles since 2002.
Post-Midterm Drops
SPY dropped 8.8% in December 2018 after November gain.
2026 Test
SPY must hold above $755.72 to avoid 2018-style drop.
Here's the gist
SPY gained 1.16% after 2026 midterm but faces potential 8% drop by year-end.
